Evans-Novak: NY-25 and NY-26 “Leaning Democratic Takeover”

The Evans-Novak Political Report rated NY-25 (Reynolds-open) and NY-26 (Walsh-open) as "leaning democratic takeover" citing strong Democratic candidates and Republican recruitment failures.   

New York-25: The matchup appears set in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Walsh (R), and it still looks like a Democratic takeover in this Syracuse-based district.

Former Capitol Hill staffer Dan Maffei (D) barely lost to Walsh in 2006, and he is the Democratic standard-bearer right now. Maffei has strong liberal backing and is a skilled campaigner who now has experience. Currently, he is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The only Republican in the race right now is former state fair director Peter Cappuccilli (R). Cappuccilli is inexperienced, and there are murmurs that the National Republican Congressional Committee is giving up on this district to focus on stopping losses elsewhere.

Although held by a Republican in recent years, this is really a Democratic district. A third of the population lives in Syracuse, which is a Democratic town. Walsh benefitted from his family connections -- his father was Syracuse mayor and a congressman -- but still, in his narrow '06 win over Maffei, Walsh lost the city and won on the strength of the rural vote, which has benefitted from his pork-barrel spending.

In short, any Republican but Walsh would be hard-pressed to win this district, and Maffei is a strong candidate. Maffei is a favorite now, and by the fall, he could be a shoo-in. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

New York-26: Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), perhaps facing electoral defeat, will retire this year after an ignominious stint as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Fittingly, he looks to be leaving his district to the Democrats.

Reynolds' district in Western New York voted for Bush in 2004, but Reynolds barely held on in 2006 after revelations about his handling of the Mark Foley scandal.

Democrats have two strong potential candidates: wealthy businessman and two-time candidate Jack Davis, and Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, who was already engaged in a challenge to Reynolds. Davis could fund his own race, and Powers has backing among liberal bloggers who showed real success raising funds in 2006.

Republicans failed to get their top candidate, State Sen. George Maziarz. State Assemblyman Jim Hayes is currently the leading Republican. Republicans have an enrollment edge here, but the sagging economy and the Democratic cash advantage tilt this one towards the Democrats. Leaning Democratic Takeover. [emphasis mine]

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I was a Hillary supporter, a strong one, but I’ve grown so tired and frustrated with the vitriol of this campaign that I’ve switched to Senator Obama.  We’ve never had a better chance to return this country to the people than this upcoming election, but this party needs unifying and the sooner the better or John McCain will have been given advantages he never would have had if not for this lengthy and debilitating squabble.  It is exactly the sort of childish and divisive fight about which the American people have grown totally tired.  It is an utterly dreary example of how personal ego and desire for power can, if allowed to go on and on, subvert the common good.  People of good sense must step forward and put an end to it NOW.

Posted by Greg Van Hee | 03/28/08, 09:09 PM GMT

Each day I sit and watch this party destroy itself rather than reinvent, each day worse that the one before. We praise Hillary and Obama for bringing out voters in record numbers yet we fail to see the divide we have created between the party and those who have come out to vote for history. We are well aware that the President Bush is 3 aces short of a deck and his administration nothing short of challenged. Yet rather than devise a plan to help this great nation we sit back and hope that President Bush will win us the election. Since our ballets were cast to give the house and senate back to the Democrats what have they done? Have they yet to win a battle worth while? No! We have a wonderful chance to stand for something as a party and gather these voters that have been brought to us by both candidates and keep them rather than our in fighting that has disenfranchised voters from Michigan and Florida, is this not the same thing that we fought in the general election 8 long years ago? How can this party now do the same based on the date the election was held? I for one was astounded that voters wanted such a say in this election Primary or General we have been waiting years for voters and states to show such passion. The reason Al Gore and then Kerry after him lost was because the party had no direction and we still sit in the same still water waiting, for what I do not know but until we can find a way to unite this country we will always watch from the side lines. We have allowed the republicans to win based on religion and moral issues, how well that is simple we have no position. We could easily take the other end of the spectrum and preach Fiscally Conservative and Morally Liberally but no we decide to play to the crowd
and what has that done for us? We have enthusiastic voters lining up and we need to be sure they vote every time not just when they feel they are voting for history.
Our economy is in turmoil, our rights are being taken away one by one, and the religious right is looking to change the constitution daily. We forget why we fought for independence it was done so these same religions could practice and have their own beliefs, yet now abortion, drinking, adult entertainment have all become fair game for them to take away and why? Because they have what they need and now we resort to Pre 1776 ideals where religion can chime in when they feel marriage
is at stake.Who are we to decide marriage and who can enter into it. Is this not the states choice as the Federal Government was designed to help the states not make choices for them. One day I hope our party sits down and decides to stand for something anything. Look at what the republicans have done and think how crazy what they have and are doing is, do they continue to win? YES they do and it is because people are just looking for something to stand behind. Please forget this administration and go win this election, at this point it seems that to win we will need Obama and Hillary to go
one and two if we even hope to have a dem in the white house because I for one will not vote for either at this point without the other as it will only divide this nation further.

Posted by Dominick in PA | 03/29/08, 12:10 AM GMT

The Democratic Party has abandoned DEMOCRACY for hypocrisy. Because they have chosen a path that guarantees a massive electoral defeat this year (and perhaps for years to come), I will not give them a single penny.

Posted by PMS in Texas, Florida, Michigan | 03/29/08, 12:25 AM GMT
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