NY Times: Obama’s Down-Ballot Effect

With all the talk and worry about the potential "Obama effect" on races down the ticket, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee believes it has identified a very positive one - Senator Barack Obama runs strongly with independent voters.

A committee memo sent this weekend to Democratic House members, some of whom have recently expressed wariness about Mr. Obama, fleshes out some research on Mr. Obama's standing with independent voters, a bloc that was crucial to the Democratic takeover of the House in 2006.

"Senator Obama's appeal among independent voters was clearly illustrated throughout the 2008 primary contest," said the memo from Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the DCCC. "Out of a total of 38 states that exit polling was available for, Senator Obama won the independent vote in 29 of those contests. In presidential battlegrounds like New Mexico, Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia - states where multiple House seats are in play - Senator Obama won independents by strong margins."

Mr. Van Hollen said Republicans should be doubly worried by evidence that showed Mr. Obama outperformed Senator John McCain among independents in primary states when the Republican party's nomination battle was still in doubt. Independents are considered Mr. McCain's political strong suit.

Yet the memo said that, based on exit polls, Mr. Obama won 16,000 more independent votes than Mr. McCain in New Hampshire, a state where Mr. McCain is very popular. "This trend continued in the traditionally Republican state of South Carolina, another open primary, where Senator Obama won the independent vote with approximately 51,405 compared to Senator McCain's 33,498," it said.

Republicans see the independent bloc as gravitating toward Mr. McCain in the general election and believe the primary results will not necessarily translate since the Democratic primary was more compelling, attracting more interest from independents at the time.

Some House Democrats in more conservative parts of the country have also expressed recent reservations about Mr. Obama, indicating they would not endorse him and might skip the national convention in Denver.

But Mr. Van Hollen said the analysis gives him optimism about competitive House races, particularly in the suburbs, where independents tend to be the swing faction.

"Having Senator Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket in November will be a tremendous asset for Democratic House candidates," he wrote to his colleagues.