Aug 02, 2012
Democrats lead by 6 points against most vulnerable House Republicans
The latest Battleground Survey by Democracy Corps shows Democratic candidates are in strong position in the most competitive congressional districts that Republicans currently hold. These House Republican incumbents are increasingly underwater and voters siding with Democrats on the key debates that frame the 2012 election.
In the most vulnerable 27 House Republican-held districts, Democratic candidates have a 6-point lead (50 - 44 percent) in the generic Congressional ballot with Democratic challengers reaching the critical 50-percent threshold, according to the latest Battleground Survey by Democracy Corps.
- Republican incumbents’ job approval has eroded from a 15-point lead (39 – 24 percent) in March of 2011 to even (36-36 percent) today.
- A majority of voters (50-40 percent) say they cannot vote to re-elect their incumbent House Republican.
- Republicans have lost their advantage with seniors and now are nearly tied with Democrats among seniors in the generic Congressional ballot (45 – 47%). According to 2010 exit poling, Republicans won seniors by 21 points (38 – 59 percent).
Voters in these vulnerable House Republican-held seats prefer the Democrats plan to “ask the wealthiest to pay a great share of taxes to address our problems and the deficits” instead of the Republicans who “won’t vote for any tax increase” by 7 points (50 – 43 percent).
- In these top-tier districts of vulnerable Republicans, voters think Democrats will do a better job on health care and on Medicare than Republicans by 11 points (50 – 39 percent).
- Voters believe Democratic challengers are more likely to be on their side (46 – 39 percent) and bring the right kind of change (48 - 40 percent).
House Republican incumbents vote for the Republican (Ryan) budget, and its impact on seniors raised doubts with 66 percent of voters – making it the top-testing negative.