23-year incumbent Mica facing “his toughest race ever”
Rating Change: FL-07 May Be 2016’s Ultimate Bellwether House Race
David Wasserman
Cook Political Report
September 29, 2016
If Democrats want to make a serious dent in Republicans’ House majority, they’ll need to break through in diversifying, suburban districts where Donald Trump is about as popular as snarled traffic. Florida’s 7th CD, north of Orlando and near the site of both the Pulse Nightclub and Trayvon Martin shootings, fits that description perfectly. Yet as recently as June, Democrats couldn’t even find a candidate to run against entrenched GOP Rep. John Mica.
All that changed on June 23, when Rollins College business professor Stephanie Murphy, in part motivated by the Pulse tragedy and the gun debate, announced her bid just a day before the filing deadline. Now, this contest is shaping up to be the ultimate House race of 2016.
It’s rare to find a last-minute candidate straight out of central casting, but Murphy is an immigrant and suburban mom with a business and counterterrorism background and no political record to attack. At 38, she cuts a stark contrast to Mica, who is 73 and was first elected in 1992. And although Murphy got a late fundraising start, Democratic groups have reserved $4 million in the Orlando market and Mica had just $788,000 in mid-August.
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Mica hasn’t taken less than 58 percent of the vote in any of his reelections, and hasn’t needed to run a real general election campaign in years. But Mica is showing some rust, and a perfect storm threatens to turn 2016 into his toughest race ever.
First, a mid-decade, court-ordered redistricting map approved last December shifted the city of Sanford (the site of the Trayvon Martin shooting) and parts of Orlando into the 7th CD, making it three points less Republican. Under the new lines, President Obama carried it narrowly with 49 percent in 2012. Although the Pulse massacre in June occurred just outside the 7th CD’s new boundaries, many of the victims were treated at a hospital in the district.
Second, Orlando’s northern suburbs are undergoing a demographic metamorphosis. The entire metro area, including Seminole County, is experiencing an influx of Puerto Rican voters moving to the mainland. About 31 percent of the 7th CD’s eligible voters are non-white, up from 29 percent just two years ago. The 7th CD is also the youngest district in Florida, and includes the University of Central Florida, a huge target of Democratic registration drives.
Third, Mica has given Democrats plenty of easy ways to portray him as out of touch with a changing suburban electorate. Two days after Pulse, Mica’s campaign accepted a $1,000 contribution from the NRA. A month later, Mica allowed a hearing to go forward on his co-sponsored First Amendment Defense Act, a religious freedom measure that has drawn the ire of LGBTQ groups. The Pride Fund to End Gun Violence just released a digital ad hitting Mica.
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Set against a backdrop of redistricting, national tragedy, demographic change and hotly contested presidential race, FL-07 is exactly the type of district that could make the difference between Democrats picking up a modest (5-10) or larger (10-20) number of House seats on Election Night. It also happens to feature the most jarring contrast between an incumbent and a challenger in the country. This race moves to the Toss Up column.