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Sep 21, 2007

Campaigns and Elections - 17 Years Later, Adler a Better Bet

State Sen. John Adler, D-Cherry Hill, is gearing up to challenge 12-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton, for the second time in his political career. Adler ran for Saxton's seat in 1990, losing by a wide margin. Some 17 years later, national Democrats have Saxton in their electoral crosshairs, Adler is one of the state's most powerful Democrats and New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District is a very different place.

"It's getting close to the tipping point in that district," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. "It has been trending more Democratic for a long time, and apparently [Democrats] think this is the year to flip it."

The political demographics in the 3rd Congressional District have been slowly shifting, and like other traditionally Republican areas in south Jersey Democrats increasingly like their electoral chances.

Democratic insiders describe Adler as a great campaigner and someone with the clout to raise a great deal of money on his own for a campaign. He already has more than $190,000 in a campaign account set up for a U.S. Senate run. Adler was eyeing U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg's seat if he decided to not run for re-election.

Adler can also count on some help from national Democrats. Saxton's seat is one of the DCCC's top New Jersey targets, along with U.S. Reps. Mike Ferguson and Frank LoBiondo, in the 7th and 2nd Congressional Districts, respectively.

"Congressman Saxton is wrong on the war, wrong on stem cell research, and wrong for the families of New Jersey," said DCCC spokeswoman Carrie James. "At a time when more than 70 percent of Americans support a responsible withdrawal from Iraq, Congressman Saxton will lose because he continues to stay the course."

The DCCC has been talking with Adler about the possibility of running for months now. And, in a state lodged in between the Philadelphia and New York media markets, where no competitive campaign can be run cheaply, national Democrats would likely send some money Adler's way in a competitive race.

"I would assume the DCCC has privately committed some kind of financial support to Adler already to urge him to run," Murray said. "But, I still think its Saxton's seat to lose."

Despite a Democratic electoral wave in '06, Democrats were unable to oust any of New Jersey's incumbent congressional Republicans. And, even if 2008 proves to be as good a year for Democrats as 2006, Saxton is no easy target. He has consistently won re-election by wide margins and Republicans say he has a strong record of constituent service that will make him tough to upend.

The war in Iraq will no doubt be one of Adler's primary lines of attack. In his opening shot yesterday, Adler tied Saxton to the war and to President Bush.

Adler has beaten a well-entrenched and popular Republican once before in his political career. In 1991, the year after his congressional loss to Saxton, Adler took on state Sen. Lee Laskin, then a four-term Republican incumbent. In what was a bad year for Democrats statewide, Adler, with the help of George Norcross and a slew of network ads in the campaign's final week, pulled off an upset and he has occupied the seat ever since.

And, despite being in the middle of a re-election campaign for his state Senate seat, albeit not a very competitive one, Adler is getting a jump start on 2008.

"I'm not happy that [Adler] has decided to make this announcement at this point," said Joe Adolf, Adler's Republican state Senate opponent. "If he gets re-elected and then turns around and spends all his time running for Congress, how is he supposed to serve the people of the 6th District?"

Politically, Adler has practically nothing to lose. He does not have to sacrifice his state Senate seat or his chairmanship of the powerful state Senate Judiciary Committee. And, even if Adler does not beat Saxton next year, he will have raised his political profile and padded his campaign coffers.

"Next year is a great year for Democrats to raise money," Murray said. "With a good showing and strong fundraising, [Adler] can set himself up for another run. It's possible he is setting himself up as a state figure."