Democrats, GOP about evenly split in redrawn South Texas district

Associated Press

SAN ANTONIO – The majority party in Congress was decided last month, but Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla and Democrat Ciro Rodriguez are campaigning as if the balance hung on the outcome of Tuesday's District 23 runoff election.

For Mr. Bonilla, a win Tuesday would give him his hardest-won victory and an eighth term in Washington representing Texas' largest congressional district.

For Mr. Rodriguez, it would mean a return trip to the U.S. Capitol after a two-year absence. He served in Congress from 1997 to 2005 but lost a Democratic primary to Rep. Henry Cuellar.

Neither Mr. Bonilla nor Mr. Rodriguez received 50 percent of the vote in a crowded field on Nov. 7 in a special election for the redrawn 23rd District, prompting the runoff five weeks later.

In a campaign so short, turnout will be the key to victory, said Jason Casellas, assistant professor in government at the University of Texas at Austin.

"The people who are going to turn out in a special election are going to be the partisans," Mr. Casellas said.

Latino turnout

He said Mr. Rodriguez will probably do well among lower-income Latinos, whose turnout is usually lower, while Mr. Bonilla will have success with higher-income white voters.

"Given the demographics and turnout barriers, it's just more of an uphill climb" for Mr. Rodriguez, Mr. Casellas said.

Latino groups see the contest as a test of the power of the Hispanic vote.

The district, redrawn this summer after the Supreme Court ruled that the original lines unfairly diluted Hispanic voting strength, has a voting-age population that is 61.2 percent Hispanic. Among registered voters, 54.7 percent have Spanish surnames.

But the district is split almost evenly among Democrats and Republicans.

"This is sort of a special district," said Nina Perales, Southwest regional counsel for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund. "There's a lot of ticket-splitting. Someone may vote for George Bush for president and a Democrat for county commissioner."

To give Mr. Bonilla an easier re-election battle, Republicans in 2003 redrew the district to include fewer Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic. But the high court ruled that unconstitutional, and now, some Latino groups fear more such attempts to curb Hispanic voting, Ms. Perales said.

Though Mr. Rodriguez is thought to have an edge among Hispanic voters, Mr. Bonilla's opposition to abortion and gay rights and his emphasis on family values and other conservative social positions appeal to some of the cultural values of Hispanics in the district.

Throughout his congressional career, Mr. Bonilla has bristled at suggestions that his ethnicity should dictate his political philosophy.

"There's a huge myth that exists out there for people of color that your skin color dictates your political ideas, and the darker your skin, the more to the left you automatically are. And that is the biggest insult anyone can make," he said in 2004.

Latino groups fear that state officials have already skewed the election in Mr. Bonilla's favor. Tuesday is the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, a holy day for many who may be too occupied with observances to vote. Early voting started last weekend in some counties in the district.

The state denies trying to suppress Hispanic vote. State officials said they set the date at the earliest possible time and followed the election code.

Despite the concentration of Hispanics in the district and the fact that it touches much of the border with Mexico, immigration hasn't been a major issue in the runoff campaign.

"Which of the candidates could use the issue to really boost their turnout without really angering the opposition and boosting their turnout?" said Gary Keith, a senior lecturer in government at UT-Austin. "It may be an issue that's too radioactive. ... Because it could blow up on you as much as it could help you."

Mr. Bonilla voted to build a border fence to fight illegal immigration; Mr. Rodriguez said he would not have.

"It's like war; the war should be the last resort," Mr. Rodriguez said. "The same thing applies to the wall. It sends the wrong message internationally."

Mr. Bonilla said: "I'm worried about all illegal activity. And if there's anybody out there who's in favor of illegal activity, they need to stand up and say so."

Canceled debate

The campaign also hasn't offered voters a chance to hear the candidates address each other. A debate scheduled between the candidates was canceled because of a Rodriguez scheduling conflict.

That has left the candidates to highlight their differences largely by spending money on television and radio ads and mailers. Mr. Bonilla has had an overwhelming advantage in available cash.

But Mr. Rodriguez said he's relying on what he said is voters' dissatisfaction with Mr. Bonilla.

"They'll vote for you because they like you, but they'll also vote for you because they dislike the other guy," Mr. Rodriguez said. "You get them whichever way you can."

On Sunday, he got help from former President Bill Clinton, who urged hundreds of screaming supporters in San Antonio to elect the Democrat.

"You couldn't have a clearer choice. You couldn't have a better candidate," Mr. Clinton told the crowd. "You've got just about 48 hours to go bring it home."

In a statement issued earlier, Mr. Bonilla said Mr. Clinton's visit "should prove to voters that Ciro is as liberal as ever and if given the chance would not hesitate to revert to supporting failed Clinton administration policies. My conservative base ... will take note of the Clinton/Rodriguez love fest and get even more motivated to vote."