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DCCC Press

Aug 3, 2006

Bloomberg - U.S. Terror Anxiety Tests Bush's Strength, Poll Finds

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and the Republicans retain a tenuous hold on public support for their handling of national security and terrorism, about their only ray of hope with congressional elections three months away.

Americans narrowly approve of Bush's policies on terrorism by a margin of 50 percent to 46 percent, according to the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. That's little changed from the last poll in June and down from the solid majority he commanded during his 2004 re-election campaign. The poll also shows that 51 percent of respondents say Bush's policies have made the nation more secure and 46 percent say they haven't.

By a margin of 58 percent to 40 percent, Americans express a negative view of Bush's overall job performance. By an even wider gap, Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, and voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates in the November elections by a 48 percent to 37 percent margin.

``He barely gets a majority on his handling of terrorism, and that used to be his strong suit,'' said Susan Pinkus, the polling director of the Times. ``There's real anxiety out there about our security and about whether the administration is doing a good enough job for us.''

The president gets mixed grades on the Middle East crisis. While a majority disapprove of his handling of the issue overall, there's general backing for policies such as his opposition to calls for an immediate cease-fire and his support for Israel. Americans are beginning to view the Mideast through a partisan lens: Most Republicans support the U.S. policy of aligning with Israel, and a majority of Democrats do not.

Safeguarding Nation

The poll of 1,478 adults, including 1,331 registered voters, was taken July 28 to Aug. 1 and both samples have a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Thirty-nine percent of those surveyed identified themselves as Democrats, 35 percent as Republicans, and 17 percent as independents.

Bush's overall approval rating and his support on terrorism are virtually unchanged from the June poll, and his low numbers on a range of issues, including the economy, have hardly budged since January.

The latest poll shows that by a 4-point margin people say Republicans are doing a better job than Democrats would in protecting the nation against terrorism.

Almost two-thirds of Americans say they are confident the Department of Homeland Security can safeguard the nation from terrorist attacks, compared with a third who say they aren't.

Americans also come out on Bush's side on some issues that pit civil liberties against security concerns, particularly on the government's monitoring of international money transfers. Sixty-five percent say it's an acceptable way for the government to investigate terrorism. And just over half say the media is behaving irresponsibly when it comes to balancing national security with the rights of Americans to know what is going on with government surveillance.

`Different World'

In a follow-up interview, Tim Murphy, a 50-year-old Democrat who lives in Casa Grande, Arizona, says the government has to be able to use some surveillance tools, including wiretapping. ``If it's in the interest of the nation for terrorism, then I would support it,'' he said. ``I think there can be abuse, but it's a different world now since 9/11.''

By a narrow margin of 48 percent to 44 percent, Americans remain willing to give up some civil liberties so the government can keep the country safe from terrorism, while the public is about evenly divided over whether it is acceptable for the government to use electronic surveillance to monitor phone calls and e-mails without first getting a court warrant.

The poll shows that 68 percent of Americans say the prison at the U.S. naval base in Guantanamo Bay that Bush set up after the Sept. 11 attacks should be kept open. Still, 54 percent say the prison has damaged the U.S. image, with 39 percent saying it hasn't. About three-quarters of Americans said detainees deserve at least some rights, with less than a quarter saying they deserve none.

Disquieting Warnings

The poll contains some disquieting warnings for the president. By a margin of more than 2 to 1, Americans think Bush is reacting to events rather than formulating clear policies. About half say the only reason the U.S. hasn't been attacked is because the terrorists are biding their time, and 78 percent think more terrorist attacks are likely in the next 12 months.

Iraq, where more than 2,500 U.S. military have died since the March 2003 invasion, continues to erode the president's support, with more than half of Americans saying the global terror threat has increased because of the war, up 20 percentage points from January.

Sixty percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq, up 4 points from the June poll. And a majority, 57 percent, said it's too soon to tell who is winning in the struggle against Islamic terrorist organizations. Still, 81 percent of those polled said changing U.S. policies in the Middle East, including support for Israel and the war in Iraq, won't reduce the threat of terrorism.

Surge of Violence

In the past month, there's been a surge of sectarian and gang violence in Baghdad, forcing Bush to shift some U.S. military units to the Iraqi capital from other parts of Iraq.

The number of civilians killed in the violence increased to 5,818 in May and June, or 40 percent of all Iraqi deaths from sectarian violence and suicide bombings in the first half of the year, according to a United Nations report.

Ellen Keyser, a 64-year-old part-time bank teller, said the headlines have made her more anxious about the terrorist threat at home. ``You really don't want to listen to the news because that's all it is -- bad news,'' said Keyser, who lives in Mableton, Georgia, west of Atlanta. ``All that garbage going on over there is scary. I don't know they're going to bomb Atlanta, but they possibly could.''

Even some Republicans who support the war say it is boosting the terrorist threat. ``It was necessary but it generates motivation on the part of the terrorists,'' said Bill Inman, a 62-year-old retired teacher who lives in Breaux Bridge, Louisiana. ``It plays into the hands of the terrorists because now they have us in a direct confrontation.''

Israel

The news on Iraq has been overtaken by Israel's air attacks on neighboring Lebanon and Hezbollah's rocket strikes on Israel after the seizure of two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid by the Shiite Muslim group on July 12.

The poll found 43 percent of Americans believe that Israel's attacks are justified; another 16 percent said that while the retaliation is justified, it's excessively harsh. Half think the U.S. should continue to line up with Israel. There is a significant partisan divide within those numbers, with 64 percent of Republicans supporting a policy of siding with Israel, while 39 percent of Democrats took that view.

Todd James Robinson, a telecommunications technician, said he believes political beliefs are shaping U.S. views on Israel just as they did on Iraq. ``Liberals are much more passive on using military aggression for any reason whatsoever,'' said the 31-year-old Republican from San Antonio. ``That would be a big reason why Republicans are aligning themselves'' with Bush and Israel, he said.

Cease-fire

Just 13 percent of respondents said the U.S. should call for an immediate cease-fire, while 45 percent said the Bush administration should work toward getting both sides to accept an international peacekeeping force, the policy favored by Bush. Thirty-eight percent said the U.S. shouldn't get involved at all in the fighting.

Elsewhere, Americans are more optimistic about preventing North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons than they are about stopping Iran from securing them. Fifty-eight percent said Iran will eventually obtain weapons regardless of military and diplomatic efforts, while 30 percent said North Korea can't be stopped from getting nuclear arms.