Also, independents back the Democrat over his Republican opponent, 42 percent to 32 percent.

Iowa Poll: A Register exclusive since 1943

By JONATHAN ROOS REGISTER STAFF WRITER

September 17, 2006

Democrat Bruce Braley leads Republican Mike Whalen by 7 percentage points in a northeastern Iowa congressional race that is attracting national attention in the battle of the two parties for control of the U.S. House.

A new Des Moines Register poll shows that 44 percent of voters support Braley, a Waterloo lawyer.

He's "attuned to middle-class and working-class people," said poll participant Robert Ross, 78, a Democrat from Cedar Falls.

Mike Whalen, a Bettendorf businessman, wins the support of 37 percent of adults in the 1st Congressional District who say they definitely plan to vote in the Nov. 7 election.

"I think he'll do a good job in government, being more efficient" because of his business experience, said poll respondent Tyler Young, 25, a Republican from Waterloo who attends the University of Northern Iowa.

Whalen, founder of Iowa Machine Shed restaurants, and Braley, former president of the Iowa Trial Lawyers Association, are competing for the seat of U.S. Rep. Jim Nussle, a Republican who is running for governor.

The Iowa Poll shows that 17 percent of likely voters in the 1st District are undecided at this stage of the race, while 2 percent prefer someone else or are ready to sit out this particular contest.

The margin of error for the 1st District poll of 439 likely voters is 4.7 percentage points.

Ross, a retired UNI professor, said Braley's election would help the Democratic Party's bid to regain power in Congress. Democrats need to pick up 15 seats nationally to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives.

"This is an open seat. There should be a good chance of doing so," Ross said.

The poll shows, however, that most Braley and Whalen supporters are chiefly basing their decision about who to vote for on the candidates' stances on issues. Just two in 10 cite control of the House as the main factor in their choice.

Democrats are lopsidedly in favor of Braley over Whalen, 81 percent to 4 percent. Among Republicans, 79 percent support Whalen and 11 percent say they would vote for Braley if the election were held now.

Independents give the nod to Braley over Whalen, 42 percent to 32 percent.

The Iowa Poll also tested the overall strength of the two parties' candidates in the state's four other congressional districts.

While not identifying candidates by name, the poll asked whether likely voters would cast their ballots for the Democrat or Republican nominated for the seat in their district. Forty-three percent said they would vote Democratic if the election were held now, and 36 percent said they would vote Republican.

The rest were unsure or preferred someone else.