By Stephenie Steitzer

4th District Congressman Geoff Davis got fund-raising support from Vice President Dick Cheney two years ago. This year Republican candidates could see a trouble because of their party's leadership. The first independent poll on the 4th District congressional race shows Democrat Ken Lucas leading incumbent Republican Geoff Davis by nine points.

Lucas supporters were quick to trumpet the results of the WCPO/SurveyUSA poll, which asked 447 likely voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today.

"It comes as no surprise that Geoff Davis is trailing due to his abysmal record of stewardship and his defense of the status quo," Lucas campaign manager Jim Creevy said.

According to WCPO's Web site, 41 percent of respondents chose Davis, 50 percent chose Lucas and 8 percent were undecided.

The poll, which was conducted July 22-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 points.

The Davis campaign responded by questioning the poll's accuracy.

Davis campaign manager Justin Brasell said WCPO officials confirmed the poll was automated, meaning that interviews were conducted after a recorded message was played, and the person being called then punched numbers on the telephone to respond.

"Automated polls, and SurveyUSA polls in particular, have been criticized for inaccuracy by both Democrats and Republicans alike," Brasell said.

Michael Baranowski, a political science professor at Northern Kentucky University, said he would feel more confident in the poll results once later independent poll results were released.

"Individual polls can be off, even way off," he said. "I would say it's certainly not a positive sign for the Davis campaign, but it's really going to be tough to say for sure until we see another couple of polls come out."

Still, Baranowski said he was surprised by the Lucas lead, in part because Davis has a huge fund-raising advantage.

According to campaign finance reports released earlier this month, Davis has raised more than $2.5 million and has three times as much money in the bank as Lucas, who has raised $734,000 so far.

"Given that big discrepancy, I think that's what really makes this surprising," Baranowski said.

Democrats point to the poll results as evidence that voters are connecting Davis to the Republican scandals in the state and federal government.

"It shows that the people of the 4th Congressional District are tired of the corruption in Washington, D.C. and Frankfort and they're looking for an independent, honest candidate and that's Ken Lucas," Kenton County Democratic Party Vice Chairman Nathan Smith said.

Republican candidates in Ohio aren't fairing much better in similar recent polls.

Democrat Ted Strickland led Republican Ken Blackwell by 20 points in the race to be Ohio's next governor in a poll conducted July 11-20 by the Columbus Dispatch.

And, Republican U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine trailed his opponent, Democratic U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, by eight points in the same polls.

Those polls had margins of error of two points.