By Andrea Hopkins

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

ROSS, Ohio (Reuters) - The last time John Cranley ran for Congress, George W. Bush was on his way to the U.S. presidency and Cranley, a 26-year-old Democrat, did not come close to unseating the Republican incumbent in southwest Ohio.

Six years later, Cranley is facing the same opponent, Rep. Steve Chabot, but the politics have changed. Republicans are burdened by bad news in Iraq, a gaping budget deficit and Bush's slumping popularity.

Cranley believes his district -- which, like the state, voted 51 percent for Bush in 2004 -- is ready for a new voice.

"We have a situation where if people want to register change, the only way they can register change is to vote for me," Cranley said as he campaigned at an amusement park outside Cincinnati.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which helps organize and fund key races, has labeled Ohio "ground zero" in its attempt to gain 15 seats and take control of the House of Representatives. It calls Cranley's race one of its three best chances to gain ground in Ohio, which decided the 2004 election for Bush.

Conditions are ripe for Democrats to capitalize on voter unhappiness, said Ohio State University political analyst Paul Beck.

"If it's September and things in Iraq are still the way they are right now, the Middle East is in turmoil, gas prices are still high -- I think it could be a Democratic blowout here," said Beck. "But whether they can cash in on it remains to be seen."

The Ohio Republican party also has been burdened by ethics and finance scandals that have ensnared state political figures. Republican Gov. Bob Taft is deeply unpopular, and a former aide to Republican Rep. Bob Ney pleaded guilty in May in connection with a bribery probe of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Cranley has raised nearly $1 million -- double his take six years ago and 10 times that of the Democratic challenger in 2004. But his campaign war chest, at about $750,000, is about half of Chabot's $1.4 million.

CALL FOR CHANGE

While Cranley is still young enough at 32 to be mistaken for a campaign volunteer, he has spent the last six years on Cincinnati's City Council gaining recognition in his half-city, half-suburban district.

Some voters seem receptive to his call for change.

"To be honest, I'm not happy about the Iraq situation ... and how (Republicans) are not controlling costs in terms of the budget," said Roger Faulkner, who was picnicking at the park while Cranley campaigned nearby.

But Faulkner, 40, said his opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage has kept him loyal to the Republican party. "I'd vote for Democrats if they weren't as liberal as they are," he said.

Cranley, a Catholic, opposes abortion and gay marriage, but supports giving same-sex couples more rights. Both Cranley and Chabot say they want to cut government spending and balance the budget.

Cranley is careful about Iraq. He has said the war is not going well but has not called for a troop pullout.

"Look, Iraq is a complicated thing," Cranley said. "We need accountability and we need to restore checks and balances."

The small-target strategy is not lost on his opponent.

"He's clearly trying to avoid taking specific public positions on issues wherever he can," said Chabot's chief of staff, Gary Lindgren. Chabot says he is running on his record and he has supported Bush's Iraq policy. First Lady Laura Bush is to raise money for him in Ohio next week.

Ohio State's Beck said Democrats may be hoping it is enough to simply present themselves as an alternative to the unpopular party in power.

But some voters want more.

"They better make some stands and make them soon," said Marlene Kyle, 71, who usually votes Democrat. "I don't know why they're so wishy-washy."