TO:Victory Partners
FROM: Chris Van Hollen
RE: 2007 Democratic Strategy
DATE: April, 2007

At the DCCC we are aggressively on the offense and working to put a large number of Republican seats in play in 2008. We are in the process of targeting open seats, districts where Republicans won by less than 10%, seats won by Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election and districts occupied by ethically challenged incumbents.

We have lined up a strong Recruitment Committee led by Congressman Arthur Davis (AL-07). The team includes Russ Carnahan (MO-03), Mike Doyle (PA-14), Rahm Emanuel (IL-05), Steve Israel (NY-02), Ron Kind (WI-03), Jim Matheson (UT-02), Betty McCollum (MN-04), Mike Ross (AR-04), Tim Ryan (OH-17), Adam Schiff (CA-29), Hilda Solis (CA-32) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20). We encourage you to let us know immediately of any good prospective Democratic candidates in any Republican held districts.

Expanding the Majority:

Math Favors Democrats in Open Seats

As history shows, following an election in which party control changes, we can expect the losing party to have a much higher rate of retirements, creating many open seat opportunities. In 1996, following the 1994 election debacle, Democratic retirements were twice as high as the average. This led to Republicans picking up a net gain of six open seats in 1996. If this pattern holds, Democrats should have an open seat advantage in the 2008 elections.

* 2002 is complicated because of redistricting, but there were 31 open seats (18 Republican and 13 Democratic). Both parties won 3 open seats from the other party. There were also 18 new open seats; Democrats won 5 and Republicans 13.

Close Call Republican Districts

Democrats are poised to compete in districts where Republicans won with less than 5% of the vote. There are 20 seats including Dave Reichert (WA-08), Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Thelma Drake (VA-02) that fall in this category.

While Democrats won close races with more sizable margins across the board, Republicans had twice as many seats that were won by less than 2%. This category includes races featuring incumbents like Jim Walsh (NY-25), Heather Wilson (NM-01), Robin Hayes (NC-08) and Barbara Cubin (WYAL).

In addition, incumbents like Joe Knollenberg (MI-09) and Charlie Dent (PA-15) who won by less than 10% against under-funded and unknown candidates will also be targeted.

Presidential Bump Districts are Ripe for the Picking

While Democrats made significant gains in Kerry won districts in the Northeast and Midwest in 2006, eight districts that went Democratic in 2004 remain. Our challengers in these districts will benefit from an increase in Democratic turnout in a Presidential election year.

While we have begun to make significant gains in the suburbs, history shows that presidential year turnout will amplify our support there by turning out marginal voters who do not turn out for off year elections. Specifically, districts like Mike Ferguson (NJ-07) outside of New York City and Deborah Pryce (OH-15) outside of Cleveland will benefit from the added turnout in the suburban areas.

Ethics are Still Fresh on the Mind of Voters

The 2006 cycle proved that ethics matters to voters. While there were several Republicans defeated this past cycle as a direct result of their ethical lapses, a handful returned to Washington and should be considered among the most vulnerable.

We will actively compete in districts held by incumbents facing ethical questions including, Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), and Jerry Lewis (CA-41).

Other Races

A lesson from the last election was that Democrats can compete on a broad playing field. We will look for opportunities to constantly expand that field. We welcome your input.