Campaign 2010

Sep 10, 2008

Democrats Strong in NY26

MEMORANDUM

To:      Interested Parties
FR:      DCCC Communications
Date:   September 10, 2008

RE:     Democrats Strong in NY26

Following Alice Kryzan's primary victory in New York's 26th congressional district, Democrats are confident that this seat remains a strong pick-up opportunity heading into the general election.  This Western New York district has been trending Democratic in recent election years and has a history of voting for Democratic presidential candidates.  With a strong candidate, a Democratic-favored political environment and a Republican who is virtually unknown throughout the district - Democrats are confident heading into the general election.

Democratic Mobility

In a district which Bill Clinton won in both 1992 and 1996, a motivated Democratic base will be a critical piece of Alice Kryzan's November victory. Public polling consistently shows that Senator Obama has a strong lead over Senator McCain in New York. According to August 18 Siena New York poll, Obama had a 8-point lead over McCain (47-39%). New York Democrats turned out three to one over Republicans in the Super Tuesday presidential primary, showing just how motivated the Democratic base is compared to the Republican base. 

 55 Days Before Election Day, Chris Lee is Unknown 

Chris Lee has not been active on the campaign trail, and while he has a fundraising lead, he has to play a lot of catch up to increase his name identification and get his message out to voters who are unfamiliar with him, his candidacy, his lack of experience and his hollow agenda.  After Lee's support for President George W. Bush and his refusal to take positions on serious issues like Iraq and Social Security, what's left isn't flattering:  a rich country club Republican who inherited his father's business, which he sold to a giant corporation guilty of illegally selling technology to China.  Worse, the money from that sale is funding Lee's campaign. That profile doesn't sell, particularly in this district.  

Kryzan has been on television, has participated in public debates with her primary opponent Jon Powers and she has been actively campaigning in a highly covered Democratic primary.   

Conclusion  

Earlier this year, Democratic candidates for Congress won three special elections in districts that President George W. Bush won with as much as 60% of the vote in 2004.  In this trending Democratic district with new voters and a candidate who will certainly get a boost from an exciting primary victory, Democrats are in a strong position with only 55 days until Election Day to pick up this seat. 

Alice Kryzan has lived and worked in Western New York for more than 30 years as an environmental attorney and a prominent community volunteer.  With a focus on fighting to bring green jobs, affordable health care, and economic prosperity to her district, Alice Kryzan is a viable candidate heading into the general election.  The momentum from her exciting primary victory, in which she was outspent by two well-known Democrats, will propel Kryzan into the general election with a strong message, a favorable political environment and a virtually unknown opponent.  There is no doubt that Chris Lee faces an uphill battle defending the status quo Republican agenda.


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