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Aug 16, 2007

Politico - Dems chances to grow House majority surge

A potential wave of Republican retirements is dimming the GOP's already slim chances of recapturing the House in 2008.

The somewhat surprising announcement Thursday by Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) not to seek reelection and the expected retirement announcement of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) Friday give Democrats two new opportunities to pick up GOP-held seats.

Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.), who represents a safely Republican seat, also announced his retirement Thursday. And though his decision will not likely alter the political map, it is a little vote of confidence for the GOP’s chances to regain the majority.

The retirements come at a time when the National Republican Congressional Committee is lagging well behind the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in cash on hand and can ill-afford too many retirements in competitive congressional districts.

Republicans need to pick up 16 seats to win back the House, and every new tight race makes it more difficult for them to do that.

House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole of Oklahoma have made it clear to their members that August would be the best time to announce their intent if they plan to move on. And they have compiled their own watch list of potential retirements, including a mix of senior Republicans in safe -- and not so safe -- seats, as well as a handful of lawmakers embroiled in scandal.

A large number of retirements in competitive districts would make it more difficult for the NRCC to continue fully funding their top challengers. Pryce and Hastert both represent major-market districts where it’s expensive to advertise on television.

Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Ohio) tops the list of incumbent Republicans who are expected to retire. And Republican leaders are also keeping a close eye on Rep. C.W. Bill Young (R-Fla.).

A trio of Republicans -- Reps. John Doolittle of California, Rick Renzi of Arizona and Don Young of Alaska -- face serious legal concerns that could influence their reelection decisions.

Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.) has also been affected by the investigation surrounding jailed lobbyist Jack Abramoff, but it remains unclear to what extent.

Unforeseen events also could throw other Republican seats into play. Rep. Jo Ann Davis (R-Va.), for instance, has battled a second bout of breast cancer this year. And fellow Virginia Republican Tom Davis is widely expected to wage a Senate bid if John Warner announces his retirement.

By contrast, only two Democrats have announced their retirement, and both represent fairly safe seats. A third, Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez of Illinois, “un-retired” Thursday after previously announcing he would not seek reelection.

While Hastert’s retirement was long expected, Pryce’s was more of a surprise. In her announcement Thursday, she said her desire to spend more time with her 5-year-old daughter played a major role in her decision.

“My daughter Caroline, who passed away, I missed a lot of [her] growing up, and I don't want that to happen again.” Pryce said.

Democrats are especially optimistic that they can pick up Pryce’s Columbus-based seat, which President Bush barely carried in 2004. Their nominee will likely be Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, who lost to Pryce by just a two-point margin in 2006.

“With yet another open seat to defend, this is a significant blow to national Republicans,” said DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell. “Mary Jo Kilroy came within 1,055 votes of winning last cycle, and we expect this race to provide us with a tremendous opportunity to strengthen our majority.”

NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said that the party is confident of its chances, especially considering Kilroy was unable to ride the Democratic tide to victory in 2006.

“There is a strong Republican bench in the Columbus area so we are confident that we will have a top-tier candidate to succeed Deborah Pryce,” Spain said. “On the other hand, Democrats are rerunning a candidate with high negatives that could not win in the favorable political environment in four decades.”

Kilroy posted disappointing fundraising numbers in the second quarter, only raising $37,000. Her primary opponent, who since dropped out, released a memo in June saying if Kilroy "couldn't beat Pryce during the 2006 'perfect storm' for scandal-racked Republicans in D.C. and Ohio, she is not likely to win the 15th in 2008."

On the Republican side, former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro is expected to announce his campaign soon and appears to be emerging as the party’s favored candidate. He was defeated by Ken Blackwell in the 2006 gubernatorial primary.

Other potential GOP candidates for Pryce’s seat include state Rep. Jim Hughes and former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes.

Hastert’s district will be somewhat tougher for the Democrats to pick up. He has consistently cruised to re-election in a district that leans Republican, with Bush taking 55 percent of the vote in 2004.

But a weak crop of Republican candidates could help the Democrats. One Illinois Republican operative called the likely GOP candidates seeking to succeed Hastert “unimpressive.” Hastert’s preferred candidate, state Sen. Tim Schmitz, has opted not to run.

So far, two Republicans have hinted they will be running when Hastert retires. Jim Oberweis, a dairy owner who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate and for governor, is a well-known wealthy conservative able to finance his own race. And from his previous campaigns and famous dairy stores, he has solid name identification in the district.

His likely challenger is state Sen. Chris Lauzen, who his has plenty of detractors among the GOP hierarchy. Hastert, for one, reportedly does not get along with him, and may lend his support to Oberweis.

“Chris is a guy that’s never worked with anyone. He doesn’t play well with others, it’s not his deal,” said the GOP operative. “Denny’s a chain of command guy.”

Democrats appear to have settled on physicist Bill Foster as their favored contender after popular state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia opted not to run. And Foster has ability to finance much of a campaign as well, an added asset in what is expected to be an expensive race.