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Share ThisDec 17, 2007
Politico - Freshmen Dems hang in there
After the Republicans swept control of Congress in 1994, all eyes turned to a handful of the party’s freshmen, ushered in by that wave, who weren’t quite ready for prime time.
Whether it was North Carolina Congressman David Funderburk, who was involved in an automobile accident many said he didn’t take responsibility for, or Oregon freshman Wes Cooley, who lied about his service in the military, many newly elected Republicans began their reelection campaigns as underdogs just after they took office.
In fact, 12 newly elected Republicans ended up losing in the next election cycle.
So it was only natural that, when Democrats took over Congress last year, many expected that some of the 30 newly elected freshmen who defeated incumbent Republicans would fall prey to the same foibles.
After all, many won seats in solidly Republican districts — more by virtue of the incumbents’ ethical baggage than their own battle-tested campaigns.
But what’s remarkable, at least at this point in the 2008 cycle, is the resiliency of most of these Democratic freshmen, who have largely avoided making fatal slip-ups or casting ill-advised votes that could haunt them on Election Day.
In fact, some of them are already looking surprisingly well-positioned to win reelection.
Rep. Zack Space (D-Ohio), a long-shot candidate just two years ago, finds himself with hardly any serious GOP opposition in a rural district that President Bush won in 2004 with 57 percent of the vote.
Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) won a solidly Republican district that had been held by GOP Rep. Charles Taylor since 1990. And Shuler seems to have a solid shot a reelection.
Once best-known for his football career, Shuler is now winning public attention for his co-sponsorship of tough-on-immigration legislation that has won the support of Republicans and many politically vulnerable freshman Democrats.
A handful of credible Republican challengers in his district opted not to challenge him.
And Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.), famed for his rock-and-roll career, saw his only serious challenger suddenly drop out of the race last month. He was considered a prime GOP target, given that his district had long been held by Republicans.
These are exactly the types of seats Republicans need to sweep in 2008, especially with the possibility of a left-of-center Democratic presidential nominee heading up the ticket.
But the fact that talented candidates are choosing to stay on the sidelines in some of the nation’s most conservative districts isn’t an encouraging sign for the GOP.
And once members accrue the benefits of incumbency, it becomes increasingly difficult to knock them off.
Look at Reps. Melissa Bean (D-Ill.), Dennis Moore (D-Kan.) and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin(D-S.D.). All were elected in among the most conservative parts of the country within the last decade.
And despite the Republicans’ best efforts in recent years, they have been frustrated in attempts to unseat them, even in years with a strong Republican environment.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) has frequently cited the number 61, as in the number of Democrats holding seats in districts Bush carried in 2004. It’s intended to illustrate that the playing field is ripe for Republican pickups in 2008.
But many of those 61 members have held solidly-Republican seats for quite some time and proven their mettle.
The odds of garnering serious opposition against veteran Democrats like Ike Skelton (Mo.), Gene Taylor (Miss.) or Rick Boucher (Va.) is next to nil.
That leaves the 20 or so freshman Democrats who greatly benefited from the anti-Republican wave last year. If candidates emerge in all the races and public opinion in those districts returns to its GOP roots, Republicans may be in respectable shape.
But if Republicans fail to defeat most of them, they risk giving the freshman Democrats an opportunity to solidify their hold for years to come.
