Pollster: Indicators say Chocola in trouble

By JAMES WENSITS

Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly appears to have a slight edge in his bid to upset Republican incumbent Chris Chocola for the 2nd District congressional seat, according to a districtwide poll taken on behalf of The Tribune and WSBT-TV.

The weekend poll asked likely voters, if the election were held now, who they would vote for.

The result: Forty-six percent said they would vote for Donnelly, 41 percent said they would vote for Chocola and 13 percent said they were undecided, with a plus-or-minus 5 percent margin for error.

Because of the margin for error, it is possible that the results could be reversed, with 46 percent favoring Chocola and 41 percent favoring Donnelly, or even that the race is tied.

But pollster Delair Ali, of Research 2000, Rockville, Md., doesn’t think so.

“This is why you deal with questions other than the horse race,” said Ali, whose interpretation of the rest of the poll says that it favors Donnelly over the incumbent.

“He’s in deep and serious trouble,” Ali said of Chocola. “The good news for him is the election is in November.”

Ali, an experienced pollster, said the fact that Chocola’s unfavorability rating of 44 percent is basically as high as his 45 percent favorability rating, compared to Donnelly’s unfavorability rating, of 31 percent, indicate that chances are Donnelly actually is 5 points ahead in the race.

By combining the excellent/good and fair/poor categories in Chocola’s job performance rating, the 47 percent rating in each “is mixed at best,” Ali said.

The pollster also looked at the question asking those polled if they would prefer to see more Democrats or more Republicans elected. The response: 49 percent wanted more Democrats, while 41 percent wanted more Republicans.

That 41 percent figure, Ali noted, matches up with the 41 percent figure for Chocola in the head-to-head race.

Ali said he believes that most of the 17 percent who chose the war in Iraq as the most important issue are against what is going on in that conflict.

He said he was also surprised at the number of people who brought up the Toll Road and time zone change as campaign issues.

“To me, it sounds like people are ticked off at Republicans in general,” Ali said.

“I’m pleased with the poll results,” Donnelly said in a statement on Monday.

“It’s clear to me that voters want change and they understand that when Chris Chocola goes to Washington, he goes to defend his party’s interests and the special interests,” Donnelly said.

“Folks know that when I’m elected to Congress, I’ll be an advocate for the needs and priorities of this district and will work to change the direction of the country,” the Granger Democrat added.

Chocola said in a Monday interview that he believes the poll is a reflection of the “landscape” more than it is a reflection of the candidates.

The Bristol Republican said he feels voters do not have a clear understanding of the differences between himself and Donnelly.

They also don’t have a clear understanding of who Donnelly is, Chocola said, promising, “They will on Election Day.”

“I think polls aren’t reality,” Chocola said, noting that polls only represent information at a particular point in time.

“You have to be afraid of losing for polls to scare you,” Chocola said. “I’m not a career politician kind of guy. I let principles guide me.”

Chocola said he is actually pleased with the poll results, given, he said, that there have been several hundred thousand dollars spent by “third parties running false and misleading ads” against him.

There have also been “51 that we know of” telephone call campaigns “telling people negative things about me,” Chocola said.

“For me to be where I am, given all that, isn’t so bad,” Chocola said.

“We’ll set the record straight by Election Day. People will know the difference between the two of us,” he added. “I think we’ll be OK.”