TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
DATE: April 7, 2016
SCHNEIDER LEADS DOLD BY 9 POINTS IN ILLINOIS’ 10TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Fresh off of his primary victory, Democratic former Congressman Brad Schneider has a 9-point lead over Republican Congressman Bob Dold heading into the general election, 42% to 33%, according to a DCCC survey of likely general election voters in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District. Schneider’s margin over Dold is consistent with the 8-point lead he held in a DCCC survey in September 2015 (37% to 29%), as the proportion of undecided voters has fallen by 9 points.
Schneider leads among key voting blocs: he holds a 15-point lead among women and a 22-point lead in the Cook County portion of the district. Voters have a more favorable view of Schneider (+8 net) than they do of Dold (+6 net).
VOTERS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S JOB PERFORMANCE
The political environment is positive for Democrats in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District: 58% of voters approve of President Obama’s job performance.
Illinois’ 10th congressional district, which includes parts of Cook and Lake counties, is the most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican in Congress. In 2012, President Obama carried the district with 58% of the major party vote. In 2014, Schneider lost the seat to Dold by just 4,856 votes.
The data in this memo is from a survey of 526 likely 2016 general election voters conducted April 2-3 in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via either a live or an automated survey. The margin of error is ± 4.3 percent.