News · Press Release

DCCC Memo — House Republicans: Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don’t

TO:      Interested Parties
FR:       Kelly Ward, DCCC Executive Director
RE:       House Republicans: Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don’t
DT:       August 10, 2016 – 90 Days from Election Day

With the conventions behind us and the general election in full swing, the reality of the “Trump Ticket” is beginning to solidify for down-ballot Republicans.  It is now undeniably clear that 2016 is a nationalized election, with congressional races shifting based on forces larger than the individual districts themselves.

The nationalized nature of this election was made clear in the post-convention contrast—with Democrats emerging united and energized while Republicans were forced to answer for Donald Trump’s relentless and unapologetic attack on a Gold Star family.  This debacle demonstrated the conundrum facing House Republicans: do we continue to stand with Donald Trump, or do we fully denounce him for the good of the country?

There are three fundamental problems facing House Republicans as they try to answer this question:

  1. They have a math problem in the swing districts – supporting Trump alienates key swing voters, while denouncing Trump alienates the Republican base.
  2. Presidential elections are a binary choice, and voters expect candidates to take a stand.
  3. Top of the ticket performance dictates the outcome of House races, particularly in the year of Donald Trump.

This reality facing House Republicans has clearly unnerved them, with several swing Republicans recently attempting to finally, finally, distance themselves from Trump.  But let’s recap what happened when they tried:

After Mike Coffman (CO-06) released an ad saying he will “stand up to President Trump,” he was immediately asked the obvious follow up question: Does this mean that you won’t vote for Trump? His answer: Not necessarily.

The result: He got called out for not being straight with voters and trying to have it both ways, especially since his spokeswoman previously said that he would “obviously” support the Republican nominee.

Scott Rigell (VA-02) took it one step further and said he would vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson instead of Donald Trump.  What happened to him?  His local Republican Party Committee literally terminated his membership.

And what are most vulnerable Republicans doing instead of outright and fully denouncing Trump?  Continuing to support him for President, avoiding the question or otherwise staying quiet.  To this day, for example, a long list of them have failed to stand up against Trump’s treatment of the Khan family, with the most vulnerable Republicans among them—like Bob Dold (IL-10) and Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)—refusing to say anything at all.

For the next 90 days, Donald Trump will undoubtedly continue these types of antics – just yesterday he suggested a violent attack against Hillary Clinton – and House Republicans will be forced to deal with the fallout.  Their problems are only going to get worse.

Here’s why.

Problem #1: House Republicans Have a Math Problem in the Swing Districts

They are damned if they do, damned if they don’t

The reason vulnerable Republicans try to condemn Donald Trump’s comments without fully denouncing him for President is because Donald Trump puts House Republicans between a rock and a hard place in the swing districts.

In a conventional presidential year, when turnout is higher than in mid-terms, Republicans already face the difficult task of building a winning coalition in swing districts. To get to 50%, vulnerable Republicans must appeal to the vast majority of the Republican base, and earn votes from Independents and moderates, and peel away a small portion of traditionally Democratic voters.
With 2016 being anything but conventional, Donald Trump is turning this already difficult task into a Herculean one.  The Republican base enthusiastically and blindly supports him, while Independents and moderates are appalled by his words and actions.  Meanwhile, traditionally Democratic voters, including people of color and young voters, dislike Trump so strongly that voting Republican isn’t on the table.

Let’s look at a key example: Mike Coffman in CO-06

  • Mike Coffman needs to earn around 90% of the Republican vote in CO-06 in order to win.
    • Overwhelmingly, these Republican base voters support Donald Trump for President. Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points in CO-06 according to recent polls, but still 1 out of 3 voters in CO-06 have already decided to support Trump. Coffman needs every one of those votes to win.
  • If Mike Coffman does not meet high support goals amongst Republicans, he must turn to suburban voters and independent voters, who increasingly reject Trump.
  • This problem is played out clearly in Douglas County:
    • Douglas County is an educated and suburban district, where 44% of the voters are Republican and 33% are Independents.
    • For a Republican to win CO-06, they have to win Douglas County with a super majority. Coffman received 61% of the vote in Douglas County in 2014, and 60% in 2012.
    • To get a super majority in this key county, Coffman has to both maintain high support among Republicans—who support Donald Trump—while also achieving large margins among the Independents. When it comes to Donald Trump, Coffman will not be able to appeal to both groups.
    • If Coffman underperforms in Douglas County, he doesn’t have room to grow in the rest of the district—20% of the district overall are people of color, who are turning away from Trump in droves.

Problem #2: Presidential elections are a binary choice, and voters expect House candidates to take a stand

Voting for Hillary Clinton is the only way to stop Donald Trump, but vulnerable Republicans refuse

As Paul Ryan himself has noted, this election is a “binary choice … It’s either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.”

With it now undeniably true that Donald Trump is not only unfit to be President but would be the “most reckless”  American president in history, the only way to truly stand up to Donald Trump and prevent him from becoming President is to vote for Hillary Clinton. Anything short of an endorsement of Clinton is pandering and gimmicks.

Notable figures in the Republican Party are taking this stand, pledging their vote for Hillary Clinton in order to stop Trump.

But what has Paul Ryan done?  He continues to stand by Donald Trump, admitting it’s because he is putting  party interests ahead of what’s right for the country.

That leadership—or lack thereof—is setting the stage for House Republicans, with even the most vulnerable House Republicans following suit.   In the swing districts, because of the aforementioned math problem, House Republicans will continue to put their party loyalty and personal political calculations over what is right for the country—not denouncing Donald Trump for President and not supporting Hillary Clinton.

Swing voters simply won’t buy it.  Not only have these Republicans refused to take a stand, despite numerous opportunities to do so, the conversation happening in the swing districts makes it clear that the damage has already been done:

Jeff Denham (CA-10): Modesto Bee (Editorial) – If Jeff Denham can’t reject Trump, we must reject him

Cresent Hardy (NV-04) and Danny Tarkanian (NV-03): Reno Gazette-Journal: Jon Ralston: On Trump, it’s GOP over USA for state Republicans

Scott Jones (CA-07): Sacramento Bee (Op-Ed): “Passing up moment for moral, ethical clarity.”

Mike Coffman (CO-06): Tom Tancredo (Breitbart Op-Ed): Congressman Coffman Becomes a ‘NeverTrumper’ When It Fits His Reelection Strategy & The Big Media Blog: Radio host slams Coffman for helping Hillary

David Young (IA-03): Des Moines Register: Grassley not backing Trump over fallen soldier; Ernst won’t criticize & Des Moines Register (Editorial): Trump represents a test of character for Iowa GOP

Erik Paulsen (MN-03):Norm Coleman (Star Tribune Editorial): I will never vote for Donald Trump & Star Tribune: In Minnesota’s Third Congressional District, things have changed

Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-08): Bucks County Courier Times (Editorial): Trump Continues to Mystify Us   

Will Hurd (TX-23): San Antonio Express-News: Trump’s coattails could weigh down Hurd in Dist. 23

Carlos Curbelo (FL-26): Miami Herald: Can Carlos Curbelo survive in Donald Trump’s GOP?

Lee Zeldin (NY-01): East Hampton Star (Editorial) – Lee Zeldin Fails Soldiers Family


Problem #3: Top of the Ticket Performance Dictates the Outcome of House Races

A “congressional firewall” argument from national Republicans cannot reverse this trend

Down-ballot races are always driven by the presidential race, with performance in House races closely tied to presidential performance.  With the country getting more polarized overall, this trend only increases.  As Dave Wasserman notes, “Today, rates of split-ticket voting are at all-time lows and House candidates are defined by their party and the top of the ticket more than ever.”

For example, in 2008 and 2012, the national average difference in support between the top of the ticket and the House was only 1.9%.  In 2014, 93% of the outcomes in House races followed the 2012 presidential result.

The 2016 election is a nationalized race defined by Donald Trump, and the national polls have Clinton in a clear lead:

Clinton leads Trump, 46% to 39% (IBD/TIPP)

Clinton leads Trump, 48% to 33% (McClatchy/Marist)

Clinton leads Trump, 47% to 38% (NBC News/Wall Street Journal)

Clinton leads Trump, 44% to 36% (Ipsos/Reuters)

Clinton leads Trump, 49% to 39% (FOX)

Recent DCCC polling shows that this reality is also playing out in the swing districts:

In CA-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 6 points

In CA-25: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 12 points

In CO-06: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points

In FL-07: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 14 points

In FL-26: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points

In IL-10: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 31 points

In MN-03: Hillary Clinton is beating Donald Trump by 24 points

Donald Trump’s likely defeat in many swing districts will be a devastating anchor that drags down House Republicans all across the country.





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