TO: Interested Parties
FROM: DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department
DATE: September 14, 2016
TERRI BONOFF LEADS BY 2 POINTS AS ERIK PAULSEN’S SUPPORT ERODES
Democratic State Senator Terri Bonoff leads Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen by two points in the DCCC’s latest poll in the district, 40% to 38%.
Bonoff’s support is growing as more voters become familiar with her. Her record as an effective state Senator boosts her profile. Bonoff leads by 10 points among women, by 13 points among independents, and by 4 points in Hennepin County, which encompasses nearly all of the district.
Bonoff has moved into the lead after just one week of DCCC ads highlighting Paulsen’s support of Donald Trump, proving that the Republican presidential nominee is sinking Republicans like Paulsen down the ballot.
TRUMP IS A DRAG ON DOWNBALLOT REPUBLICANS
Trump remains extremely unpopular in this district, with over 60% of voters holding an unfavorable view of him, and he trails Hillary Clinton by double digits.
Voters continue to prefer a generic Democrat for Congress over a generic Republican, and a strong majority of voters approve of President Obama’s job performance (56% approve, 36% disapprove).
The data in this memo is from a survey of 353 likely 2016 general election voters conducted on September 12, 2016 in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via a live survey. The margin of error is ± 5.2 percentage points.