While Republicans promise a more functional and effective Congress, fights are brewing that show little promise of being resolved anytime soon. Here’s an overview of what the Tea Party and establishment Republicans will be battling over in the coming weeks and months.
1. Keeping the Government Open (Lame Duck)
The current continuing resolution that keeps the government open expires Dec. 11, meaning that House Republicans have just a few weeks to pass a package that funds the government. Funding related to crises including ISIS and the Ebola outbreak will dominate parts of this debate. In October 2013, House Republicans shut down the government when they were unable to pass a clean CR over their debates on the Affordable Care Act. Mitch McConnell has already alluded to another shutdown. [Reuters, 11/02/14; National Review, 10/31/14]
2. Tax Extenders (Lame Duck)
Although some House Republicans oppose a 2-year tax extender package, a growing number don’t want to allow the extenders to continue to lapse. The fight is over which to extend and which to make permanent. Among the tax breaks that have already expired: the state and local sales tax deduction, tuition tax credits and teachers’ ability to write off some classroom expenses. [The Hill, 11/06/14]
3. ISIS & Presidential AUMF (Lame Duck, extending to 2015)
House Republicans are divided on a new authorization for the President to use military force (AUMF) against ISIS. The group that wants a new authorization is further subdivided into those that want a narrow AUMF and others that want a very broad one. No text will currently pass muster with most Republicans. This may be part of the December Continuing Resolution debate. [CNN, 9/25/14]
4. Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (Lame Duck)
House Financial Services GOP Chair Hensarling opposes the Senate-passed TRIA bill, which other House Republicans support. The Senate bill may lack the support of a majority of House Republicans. This legislation is needed to ensure that American property insurers are not bankrupted in the event of a catastrophic attack on U.S. soil involving related property damage. Complicating this for Boehner is that industry opposes a short-term extension, too. TRIA expires 12/30/14. [CQ, 10/30/14]
5. SGR “Doc Fix”(March 2015)
Republicans are divided about how to pay for a full Medicare physician reimbursement fix. The fix itself costs roughly $150 billion over 10 years. [CBS News, 3/31/14; The Hill, 3/31/14]
6. Core Government Funding, Sequester (Spring 2015)
Republicans have internal divisions about what to do with the looming sequester cuts. Some want to lift sequester for only the defense sector, but many far right Republicans oppose reinstating a higher level of funding for DOD. In addition, Republicans are expected to attach hyper-partisan provisions to government spending bills, which will raise the likelihood of government shutdown. Aside from the ACA, it’s possible that House Republicans will focus their opposition on any immigration-related Executive Action taken by the President. [Politico, 9/04/14, 10/29/14, 10/08/14]
7. Transportation Funding (May 2015)
Republicans will be split about how much to spend on transportation infrastructure and how to pay for it. Business community support for higher levels of spending will complicate Republican divisions. [Reuters, 11/02/14]
8. Debt Ceiling (Late Summer 2015)
An increase in the debt ceiling is also on the horizon, and the GOP’s past divisions on the debt ceiling are unresolved. Our national economy and credit rating are at risk with a failure to raise the debt ceiling. A block of House Republicans have tied their debt ceiling votes to inaction on immigration reform. Treasury flexibility may delay the breach until the fall. [Reuters, 6/11/14]
9. Immigration & Border (Ongoing)
President Obama’s promised executive actions on immigration will trigger a strong House GOP backlash that involves a government shutdown or increases their focus on impeachment resolutions. Almost anything related to immigration will result in internal GOP chaos. Even simply adding more increased border security funding will be objected to by many far-right House Republicans over the cost. [TIME Magazine, 10/30/14; National Journal 7/14/14]
10. Impeachment (Ongoing)
Related to GOP opposition to the President’s executive actions related to immigration, a block of House Republicans are expected to defy Speaker Boehner’s wishes and push an impeachment resolution. [The Atlantic, 10/30/14]
11. Lawsuit
Even as House Republicans struggle to find a lawyer who will take their case against the President, they are expected to move forward with the lawsuit they approved in July 2014. [National Journal, 11/2/14]
12. Export Import Bank (Summer/Fall 2015)
Although bipartisan support exists to renew Ex-Im, it’s not clear that a majority of House Republicans support reauthorizing the longstanding and successful Export-Import Bank, which supports millions of American jobs. Business community support for a full and robust reauthorization of the bank will complicate Republican divisions. [The Heritage Foundation, 10/10/14]
13. ACA Repeal Efforts (Ongoing)
Several newly elected Republicans from far-right districts will demand a vote to repeal the ACA. Although most Republicans will stay unified in stunt votes to repeal ACA, there will be legitimate divisions with regard to how aggressively or sincerely they pursue this. Republicans may decide to just pursue destructive changes to the law, such as eliminating the employer or individual mandates or repealing the medical device tax. [Politico, 10/29/14]
14. Miscellaneous Tariff Bill (Ongoing)
Although legislation to lower tariffs for various specific domestically made products has historically enjoyed strong bipartisan support, an increasing number of House Republicans oppose these short-term measures. It expired at the end of last Congress. [Industry Week, 6/17/14; Associated Press, 7/22/10]
15. Comprehensive Tax Reform (Ongoing)
Paul Ryan will assume the gavel of the Ways and Means Committee for the first time in 2015 and will want to achieve something with it. However, deep divisions among House Republicans on corporate and individual tax code changes make any passage of a reform measure unlikely. Ryan’s reform will likely be too conservative to draw the Democratic support needed to offset Republican dissent. [Wall Street Journal, 11/04/14]