To: Interested Parties
From: Kelly Ward, DCCC Executive Director
RE: House Battlefield Update, One Year Out
With one year remaining until Election Day 2016, House Democrats are well-positioned for success next November.
For the past year, House Democrats have excelled at all the metrics within our control at this point in the Election cycle: fundraising, candidate recruitment, incumbent protection, and grassroots organizing.
Bolstering these strong metrics is a national political environment that is favoring Democrats up and down the ticket.
In Congress, the Republicans have been plagued by dysfunction, gridlock and infighting. Despite their 2014 promise to govern effectively on behalf of the American people, House Republicans have been more consumed with ideological battles and political witch hunts than standing up for hardworking Americans. This has not only driven moderate Republicans like Chris Gibson, Mike Fitzpatrick and John Kline to retire, but has culminated in the de facto coup d’état of Speaker John Boehner and the installation of the very conservative Paul Ryan.
The Presidential race is no better for Republicans. While many are enthralled (or perplexed) by the Trump/Carson phenomena, we are tracking closely where their influence is leading the whole field and the Republicans down the ticket. Every single Presidential candidate has been forced into taking positions that will alienate them from key voting blocs, including women, Latinos and young people. This might be helpful in the conservative driven primary, but it will be a political millstone around the neck of every candidate with an “R” after their name.
With one year to go, House Democrats have excelled at the fundamentals to run strong campaigns, have benefited from the national political environment, and are fully prepared to take advantage of the chaos and recklessness plaguing the Paul Ryan-led Republican Congress.
House Battlefield: Democrats on Offense
There is no question that the Republicans are on defense this cycle. Consider the following:
- 81% of the most competitive House seats on the Cook Political Report are Republican-held.
- 81% of the most competitive House seats on the Rothenberg and Gonzales Report are Republican-held.
- 72% of the most competitive House seats on Sabato’s Crystal Ball are Republican-held.
This means the vast majority of the House battlefield will be fought on Republican turf.
But it is not just the number of competitive Republican-held seats that is important; it is also where those seats are on the map. There is a large overlap between competitive House races and targeted Presidential and Senate states. For example, we have top targeted House races in Iowa, Nevada and Colorado where the Democratic Presidential campaigns are already engaging voters to boost turnout. Additionally, we have many races in states such as California and Illinois where top-tier Senate races will provide a strong supporting infrastructure to identify and turnout Democratic voters.
Fundraising: Exceeding Expectations
Despite being in the minority, the DCCC continues to outraise the NRCC and is in a better financial state than we were at this time in 2011. By the numbers:
- The DCCC has raised $51.5 million dollars this cycle compared to the NRCC’s $45.8 million. A $6 million advantage.
- The DCCC has $21.8 million Cash on Hand compared to the NRCC’s $19.8 million. A $2 million advantage.
- The DCCC has $9.85 million more Cash on Hand than we did at this point in 2011, the last presidential cycle.
- The DCCC has already received support from more than 1 million grassroots donors.
While we fully expect the Republicans to outraise us this cycle, we are on track to have the resources necessary to win races around the country.
Candidate Recruitment: Expanding the Map
Candidate recruitment is a top priority for the DCCC, and we have recruited top-tier candidates all around the country. We put a premium on finding candidates from all walks of life to match their districts, including small business owners, veterans, professors, farmers, police officers, and doctors. By the numbers:
- Democrats have announced or committed candidates in five of the six competitive open Republican seats.
- Democrats have strong candidates in all three competitive open Democratic seats.
- Democrats have candidates against 17 of the 22 NRCC Patriot Program Members, with more to come.
- Democrats are expanding the map with candidates in Republican districts such as UT-04 (Love), NY-23 (Reed) and NJ-05 (Garrett).
Incumbent Protection: Solid Ground
We can’t add by subtracting, and incumbent protection is crucial for our success next year. All of our Frontline incumbents are on solid ground for re-election. By the numbers:
- The NRCC has been unable to recruit a top-tier candidate against any of our Frontline members.
- Every Frontline member has raised more money this cycle than they had at this point last cycle.
- In the most recent quarter (Q3 2015), Frontline Democrats raised $4.7 million.
Grassroots Organizing: Earlier and More Robust Than Ever
Even with the increased voter turnout that happens in a Presidential year, we must still build a grassroots infrastructure in our targeted districts to communicate with voters and make sure they turn out to vote for House Democrats next year. We have launched this effort earlier and more robustly than ever before. By the numbers:
- The DCCC is organizing Resume Workshops in 24 districts during November and December to identify talent in local communities.
- The DCCC is conducting 25 roundtables at Universities and community colleges to encourage young people to work on campaigns.
- The DCCC has already received more than 100 applications from people ready to work on targeted House races next year, providing us with the infrastructure to ramp up our field efforts earlier than ever before.
While the DCCC and House Democrats have exceeded every crucial metric up to this point, we realize the most important measure won’t occur until November 8, 2016. That is why the DCCC is just getting started. Over the next 366 days we will continue to help our candidates run the smartest and most effective campaigns possible, we will raise the resources necessary to reach voters, and we will drive the clear contrast between Democrats’ strong vision for the future and Republicans’ reckless and irresponsible backward agenda.