In the final weeks of the election, Democrat Josh Gottheimer has taken the lead over Republican Scott Garrett by 7 points (49% to 42%), according to a DCCC survey of likely general election voters in New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District that was conducted after last weekend’s debate.
When Libertarian candidate Claudio Belusic is included as an option, Gottheimer leads by 6 points (47% to 41%, with 3% supporting Belusic).
Voters have a positive view of Gottheimer as they get to know him (+9 net, 34% favorable, 25% unfavorable), and he is popular among key segments of the electorate, including younger voters (+12 net) and voters in Bergen County (+13 net).
Meanwhile, Garrett’s popularity continues to fall. He is in the negative district wide (-8 net, 35% favorable, 43% unfavorable), and he is most unpopular among younger voters (-36 net), women (-8 net), and minority voters (-20 net).
The political environment is favorable for Gottheimer: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points (46% to 41%) and Democrats lead Republicans on the generic Congressional ballot by 6 points (49% to 43%).
Gottheimer leads among key voting groups in the district: he holds an 11-point lead among women, a 3-point lead among registered Independents, and a 16-point lead in Bergen County, which represents over 70% of the district’s voters.
“In the final weeks of the election, former Microsoft executive Josh Gottheimer has taken the lead over Tea Party Congressman Scott Garrett,” said Bryan Lesswing at the DCCC. “It is clear that North Jersey voters are rejecting Congressman Scott Garrett’s bigoted beliefs and Tea Party extremism.”
The data in this memo is from a survey of 527 likely 2016 general election voters conducted October 10th in New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District. Respondents’ information came from the voter file and respondents were interviewed over the phone via either a live or an automated survey. The margin of error is ± 4.3 percent.