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Joins Cook Political Report and Inside Elections In Shifting Race Toward Tran
Yesterday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted California’s 45th Congressional District in Derek Tran’s favor from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” – attributing the change to both Tran’s increasing support from Orange County’s significant Vietnamese-American voting population and Michelle Steel’s failure to cover up her lengthy and unpopular anti-abortion record.
This follows an identical shift in Tran’s favor earlier this month by the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report.
From Sabato’s ratings change:
Leans Republican to Toss-up: Rep. Michelle Steel (R, CA-45) represents a very diverse, Biden +6 district in Orange County with a significant Vietnamese population. This voting bloc leans right, although Steel’s opponent, Derek Tran (D), is Vietnamese-American himself, which Democrats argue could be helpful in a close race. Democrats have released a few internal polls over the past few months showing the race roughly tied. […] Our sense is that this one is competitive enough to merit being a Toss-up.
DCCC Spokesperson Dan Gottlieb:
“It’s no wonder Michelle Steel’s desperate attacks have picked up a notch – she’s losing ground faster than her long-time ally Andrew Do ‘loses’ taxpayer funds, and she’s starting to see the writing on the wall. Meanwhile, Derek Tran – an Army veteran, small business owner, and the son of Vietnamese refugees – just keeps putting in the work to send Steel packing and give families across Orange County the representation they deserve.”
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