To: Interested Parties From: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Date: June 2024 Subject: NEW DCCC BATTLEGROUND POLLING: Two Years After The Fall of Roe, Abortion Rights Remain a Top Issue Motivating Voters Ahead of November
Two years after Donald Trump and far-right extremists successfully overturned Roe v. Wade, House Republicans continue to push dangerous abortion bans that restrict reproductive freedom. While many so-called moderates had the benefit of campaigning in 2022 without a voting record, they now have votes and quotes on highly unpopular legislation that is anti-woman, anti-family, and anti-freedom.
Since the first days of their majority, House Republicans have passed at least four anti-abortion measures targeting everything from doctors who perform abortions to reproductive care for members of the armed services. They have introduced multiple federal abortion bans – including the Life at Conception Act, which would ban abortion and IVF nationwide. This extremism will cost House Republicans their majority in November.
ABORTION RIGHTS ARE A MAJOR ISSUE DRIVING BATTLEGROUND VOTERS
Since Roe v. Wade was overturned, support for abortion rights has grown to 63% nationwide, according to public polling. Coinciding with this increasing support for reproductive freedom, the issue also remains a key motivating issue for voters.
Taking a deeper dive into how abortion rights will impact the race for the House Majority, recent DCCC battleground polling across 67 Congressional districts* shows this issue is more likely to drive voter choice than any other: 36% of voters would not vote for a candidate for congress if they disagreed with them on abortion rights. Opposition to abortion remains a top ‘deal breaker’ issue for voters, and House Democrats continue to have a trust advantage when it comes to protecting voters’ reproductive freedom. When hearing opposing arguments on abortion rights, Democrats win the argument by a 10 point margin, with voters saying they would be more likely to support a Democrat. Tellingly, independent voters indicated they would be more likely to support a Democrat by a margin of 14 points after hearing the same arguments.
In other publicly available nationwide polls, support for abortion access and rights are overwhelmingly popular with voters across the political spectrum. Polls from June 2023, November 2023, March 2024, and June 2024 consistently show strong and bipartisan support for federal protections for abortion rights.
Vulnerable House Republicans can see they are on the losing side of this issue and continue to get caught scrubbing their anti-choice rhetoric to cover up their extremism.
VOTERS OF COLOR SUPPORT PROTECTING ACCESS TO ABORTION
These numbers are even more salient among communities of color in swing districts. Public polling shows that 76% of Asian voters support keeping abortion legal in all or most cases – AAPI women in particular are highly motivated to vote against GOP attacks on abortion rights. 1 in 4 Black voters say abortion is the most important issue to their vote and 73% of Black voters believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Similarly, 68% of U.S. Latinos oppose abortion bans and view Democrats as more trusted on abortion issues by a 19-point margin.
WHEN ABORTION IS ON THE BALLOT, VOTERS TURN OUT TO DEFEND THEIR RIGHTS
Democrats continue to overperform in every election since Roe v. Wade was overturned – starting with the first statewide contest post-Dobbs when Kansans overwhelmingly enshrined abortion rights into the state constitution. In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the pro-choice candidate – who largely ran on protecting reproductive rights – won a resounding victory, and overperformed the House 2022 results by 7 points in both of our targeted Republican seats: WI-01 and WI-03. Last fall, Ohio voters turned out in historic fashion to protect reproductive care by a 14-point margin. In the three Ohio districts on the DCCC’s battlefield – OH-01, OH-09, OH-13 — the measure passed by 26, 12, and 24 points respectively. Most recently, Democrats handily flipped a Republican-held seat by 8 points when running against an anti-choice Republican candidate in this year’s special election.
Importantly, seven battleground states are on track to have abortion measures on the ballot in 2024: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and New York. Eighteen districts on the DCCC’s battlefield fall within these states.
DEMOCRATS ARE ON OFFENSE
Since the beginning of the 2024 election cycle, the DCCC has been leaning into Democrats’ record of defending reproductive freedom. On the first anniversary of the Dobbs decision, the DCCC launched a website and digital buy targeting vulnerable House Republicans for their anti-abortion votes. The DCCC released an ad highlighting the GOP nominee in New York’s Third Congressional District for her support of efforts to ban abortion in New York without exceptions. When the Alabama Supreme Court instituted a ban on in vitro fertilization, we hit House Republicans for supporting the Life At Conception Act – a nationwide ban of abortion and IVF. The DCCC will continue to ensure voters in every competitive district know that House Republicans are hellbent on passing a nationwide abortion ban.
BOTTOM LINE
Two years after Roe v. Wade was overturned, support for reproductive freedom continues to grow – increasing its importance in the minds of voters as a ‘dealbreaker’ issue. Democrats continue to win on the issue nationwide as voters demonstrate that they will not support far-right politicians obsessed with ripping away these rights. Polling from the DCCC shows that the issue remains important and front-of-mind for voters, and Democrats will continue to campaign on House Republicans’ deeply unpopular agenda that threatens reproductive freedom.
*Methodology: conducted June 4-9, 1,000 likely voters across the congressional battleground contacted via live calls to landlines and cells, and text-to-web. Margin of error +/- 3.1%
