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POLITICO: “If the road to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives runs through California, a new poll suggests Democrats are… on track to get there.”
A new series of nonpartisan polling in California swing district races shows Democratic challengers “have the wind at their back” as they continue building momentum with Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters alike.
According to the polling reported by POLITICO, “Democratic House candidates…[are] ahead in CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-45” and in “an exact tie in polling estimates in CA-41.”
The polling also shows that Democratic voting bases “tend to be much more excited than their Republican counterparts about the House candidates on the ballot” – and that challengers are “peeling ‘off a… significant number’ of GOP-leaning voters.”
Voters know that Adam Gray, Rudy Salas, George Whitesides, Will Rollins, and Derek Tran are ready to beat California’s most vulnerable, self-serving House Republicans and bring honest representation back to Congress.
DCCC Spokesperson Dan Gottlieb:
“While California’s Democratic challengers continue proving themselves to be the common-sense, bipartisan leaders that their neighbors deserve, John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, and Michelle Steel have worked against their constituents’ best interests in service of their own power. This polling confirms what we know to be true: vulnerable California Republicans’ records of anti-abortion extremism and self-serving politics are coming back to haunt them.”
POLITICO: Dems hold slight edge in California swing House districts
Dustin Gardiner | September 24, 2024
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If the road to a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives runs through California, a new poll suggests Democrats are narrowly on track to get there.
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The survey, conducted by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona, found Democratic candidates to be slightly ahead of Republicans in four of the state’s six most closely-watched swing districts.
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“If the Democrats control the House in 2024, it’s probably because four or five of these districts flip,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. “It truly is so close that everything on the margins can make a difference.”
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The poll offers a rare glimpse into battleground races across California, which aren’t often polled. And it did find one major advantage for Democrats: The party’s voters tend to be much more excited than their Republican counterparts about the House candidates on the ballot. Grose said that enthusiasm, coupled with higher turnout in a presidential election, could help the party flip seats in the Central Valley and Orange County suburbs.
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Key highlights from the survey of likely voters, which was exclusively shared with Playbook:
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Democrat George Whitesides is leading Republican incumbent Mike Garcia by slightly more than one percentage point, 44 to 43 percent. The district, CA-27 (Santa Clarita and northern Los Angeles County), voted overwhelmingly for Biden in 2020.
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Democrat Derek Tran is leading Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by nearly two points, 45 to 43 percent. The suburban Orange County district, CA-45, is deeply purple.
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In the Central Valley, Democrat Rudy Salas is four points ahead of Republican incumbent David Valadao, the largest margin of any swing-seat challenger. Salas leads 43 to 39 percent in CA-22 (Bakersfield and Kern County). One district over, Democrat Adam Gray leads Republican incumbent John Duarte by two points, roughly 44 to 42 percent in CA-13 (Merced County).
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Republican incumbent Ken Calvert and Democrat Will Rollins are dead even, each receiving the support of 46 percent of likely voters. Their race in CA-41 (Palm Springs and Riverside County) is perhaps the most competitive in the state due to Rollins peeling “off a small but significant number” of GOP-leaning voters. Calvert was the only GOP candidate included in the poll who underperformed Trump and Garvey in his district.
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The survey was conducted Sept. 14-21 and included different polling sample sizes for each district.
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