This release went out to multiple of our targeted Republican districts.
TO: VULNERABLE HOUSE REPUBLICANS
FROM: DCCC
DATE: March 1, 2016
RE: Trumpocalypse Preparedness: Getting Ready for Donald Trump as Presidential Nominee
Put simply, Donald Trump is now the likely Presidential nominee of the Republican party, and all signs point to today’s Super Tuesday contests further cementing his frontrunner status and upping his delegate count. Don’t take it from us – experts and your fellow Republicans have made Donald Trump’s inevitability clear:
Reuters: “Math: Donald Trump has 90-percent chance of winning GOP nomination.”
Politico: “Folks are now going through the stages of grief,” said one high-ranking Republican operative. “Some are already at acceptance.”
Kevin McCarthy: “The bigger advantage is to Trump. I think he’s got the momentum. I think there’s more than a 50 percent chance he’s the nominee. And I think that’s what’s setting in for a lot of people.”
Mitt Romney: “I think there’s no question but that Donald Trump has the clearest path to become the Republican nominee.”
Lindsey Graham: “Unless the field consolidates, Trump is the inevitable nominee. There’s a small chance you can stop him, but that would mean a massive consolidation of the field.”
Senator Jeff Flake: “Some of us were surprised by the margin last night. It’s a concern. Very concerning.”
We recognize that this could come as a bit of a shock, partially because your leader, Speaker Paul Ryan, has repeatedly stated his “trust” in Republican primary voters to choose a winning nominee and all but refused to engage with Trump, even though the frontrunner is the complete antithesis of the Speaker’s “Year of Ideas.” Your Speaker has also yet to publicly acknowledge the obvious damage Trump would do for your reelection prospects.
To help Speaker Paul Ryan finally accept and prepare for Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, the DCCC will be sending him a handy Trump Starter Kit. Particularly important will be for Paul Ryan to better understand the mentality of the fantastically offensive businessman who could soon be at the top of the Republican ticket. The kit includes Donald Trump’s “The Art of a Deal,” the first season of The Apprentice, a calendar marking noteworthy dates, like the date of the Wisconsin presidential primary – which Trump is looking likely to win – and of course, an antacid. We’ve suggested to the Speaker that he schedule a time during an upcoming House Republican conference meeting to share his findings with you, though we understand that the schedule is packed with budget infighting for the foreseeable future.
Red Flags for Your Reelection Prospects
It is common knowledge that the rise of Trump – and the inflammatory rhetoric that he has normalized within the Republican Party – has created a nightmare political scenario for House Republicans down the ballot. According to POLITICO, House GOP polling indicated that “a plurality of respondents — 48 percent to 40 percent — would be less likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate or incumbent if Trump were the nominee,” though NRCC Chair Greg Walden seems to be pretending he didn’t commission this poll for you.
There is significant political fallout to be expected from being tied to Donald Trump’s inflammatory views and divisive attacks against large groups of the voting public, like women, Latinos, Muslim-Americans, people with disabilities and Prisoners of War. Polling confirms that his demagogic style is turning off voters – and could sink your own chances at re-election in a highly competitive district.
Trump Messaging Don’ts
It appears that some of your fellow members of the NRCC’s Patriot Program for vulnerable incumbents are desperately road-testing a few different messages in the face of Donald Trump’s seemingly inevitable rise to the nomination. We hope you can learn from their clearly flawed attempts to do so in this AP article, which betrays the extent to which these members are divorced from the reality of Trump’s takeover.
The Curbelo™: Deny that Donald Trump is a Republican
Misguided Sentiment: “I think there’s a small possibility that this gentleman is a phantom candidate … Mr. Trump has a close friendship with Bill and Hillary Clinton. They were at his last wedding. He has contributed to the Clintons’ foundation. He has contributed to Mrs. Clinton’s Senate campaigns. All of this is very suspicious,” said Curbelo, who’s backing Rubio after initially endorsing Jeb Bush.
Reality: Put down the tinfoil hat. Donald Trump is running as a Republican and has the same “R” at the end of his name as you do. Trump has the loudest mouthpiece in the entire Republican party, and he is very much defining (and damaging) the Republican Party’s brand. Additionally, Republican base voters are supporting Trump overwhelmingly, so if that’s not proof that he’s a Republican, what is?
The Dold™: Distance Yourself to Try to Save Yourself
Misguided Sentiment: U.S. Rep. Bob Dold, a Kenilworth Republican, said he’s not made a decision in the race but said he won’t support Trump. Dold pointed to inflammatory comments, such as one where Trump said Arizona Sen. John McCain is “not a war hero.” “That should be a disqualifier right off the bat,” Dold said.
Reality: There is no question now that a Trumpocalypse is coming for all down-ballot Republicans, no matter how hard and how fast they attempt to run away. And when Republicans like Bob Dold say that ticket-splitters will be their saving grace, it’s best put in the words of their own Republican strategist: “The top of the ticket is going to have a significant impact for House and Senate races and anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves.”
The Denham™: Insist Trump Will Boost Turnout
Misguided Sentiment: “Donald Trump is, I think, tapping into an energy that is bringing more people out to vote,” said Rep. Jeff Denham, whose northern California district went for President Barack Obama twice. ‘You’ve got a lot of first-time voters. You’ve got some new energy. I think it’s a different turnout model.”
Reality: This one is particularly rich given that Latinos comprise about a third of Jeff Denham’s district, and he clearly is out of touch with a large swath of his constituency given that 8 in 10 Hispanics have an “unfavorable” view of Trump in this recent Washington Post poll. According to US News, Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric has caused a “spike in new voter registration among Latinos upset by his rhetoric,” that, importantly for you “could lead to his and other anti-immigrant candidates’ ultimate defeat.”
CONCLUSION
As you prepare yourself for the inevitable result of today’s Super Tuesday results – Donald Trump getting one massive step closer to earning his spot atop the Republican ticket this fall – hopefully this memo and Speaker Ryan’s Trump Starter Kit help you understand the extent to which you are wedged between a rock and a hard place by Trump’s candidacy. He clearly endangers your reelection prospects in a moderate district, yet he’s also captivated your party’s base.
Since your own leadership has clearly dropped the ball on preparing his vulnerable incumbents for the rise of Trump, let us summarize (with a little help from Eleanor Roosevelt): “You’re damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.”
Remember – it’s Donald Trump’s Republican party now, and you’re just living in it.