| Momentum is building behind Tom Perriello’s campaign to flip Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.
Early voting numbers in VA-05 are heavily outpacing the 2022 midterm turnout numbers as Virginians sour on John McGuire’s record of corruption and higher costs in Congress.
Political analysts are saying that “early voting could hardly look better for Perriello.”
Read more about surging turnout behind Perriello:
State Navigate: “An overall look at VA early in-person voting by CD when compared to the 2025 same-day equivalent….VA-5: 10-11 pts bluer than 2025”
Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Early voting turnout was next highest in the 5th District…[The 5th] had been seen as ‘solid Republican,’ but the Cook Political Report last week moved its rating for the race to ‘likely Republican.’”
VoteHub: “The low-propensity voters showing up in VA-05 are even more Democratic-leaning than the high-propensity voters. On the evidence we have so far, early voting could hardly look better for Perriello…So to me we are looking at a Lean R race in VA but closer to Tilt than Likely.”
State Navigate: “Nelson County, VA is at 170% of its same-day-equivalent 2025 early in-person vote, highest in VA….Danville 129%…What’s most impressive is the Danville number here; that’s not really Perriello’s home turf.”
VoteHub: “In VA-05, early turnout has been heavily Democratic, especially among lower-propensity voters. That’s an encouraging sign for Democrats in this Lean R district…”
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