| A damning new analysis from POLITICO confirms that the political ground across New York is shifting decisively toward Democrats – painting a “bleak picture” for Republicans “in a state with enough competitive House races to decide control of the chamber.”
As New Yorkers continue to grapple with the rising costs and economic uncertainty created by Donald Trump and House Republicans’ toxic policies, “Democrats posted electoral gains that rival — and in many cases surpass — the party’s 2017 ‘Blue Wave.’”
In a “wakeup call for already-wary Republicans,” some of the biggest warning signs came from the areas they need most, with Democrats having their “best-ever performances in numerous deep red towns and rural areas” that create the backbone of their razor thin House majority.
- Democrats flipped over 50 seats across the state, making gains in at least 18 different county legislatures.
- Democrats posted an average 10 point increase in 268 county, town and village executive branch races from Nassau to the North Country.
- Democrats improved their performance in 17 of the 21 executive offices on the ballot on Long Island.
- For only the second time since 1989, Democrats won mayoral races in all five of New York’s largest cities.
- The number of ballots cast for Democrats increased by 22%, growing from 1.3 million to 1.6 million.
In stark contrast, Republicans only flipped ONE county legislature seat across the entire state, offering “very little solace” for the GOP as they prepare for several battleground House races in New York.
DCCC Spokesperson Riya Vashi:
“This year’s results are a flashing red warning sign for House Republicans. Already on thin ice, Trump’s toxic agenda is sinking New York Republicans across the state, and voters from Long Island to Onondaga are ready to reject extremism and help flip the House blue in 2026.”
POLITICO: Forget Mamdani. New York’s real political shift happened everywhere else.
Democrats flipped over 50 county legislative seats across the state. Republicans flipped one.
- Zohran Mamdani’s decisive win in New York City — along with key victories in New Jersey and Virginia — suggested Democrats are headed into the midterms from a position of strength. But they didn’t capture how deep that strength ran.
- Across suburbs, rural counties and small towns in New York, Democrats posted electoral gains that rival — and in many cases surpass — the party’s 2017 “Blue Wave.”
- In a state with enough competitive House races to decide control of the chamber, the outcome amounts to a wakeup call for already-wary Republicans.
- New York Democrats once viewed the 2017 elections as among their best ever. The Blue Wave that year was driven by purple suburbs making a hard shift left. This year in New York, that tilt was felt even more widely — with Democrats in every corner of the state pointing to economic uncertainty exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s policies as voters’ top concern.
- Much of the early narrative from this fall’s elections has cast Democrats’ gains as occurring mostly in places where they often win. An examination of every race on the ballot in New York shows the shift was far more widespread, with Democrats having their best-ever performances in numerous deep red towns and rural areas.
- A year out, this year’s contests offered very little solace for Republicans as they prep for seven battleground congressional races in New York and a gubernatorial election in which they hope to build on the rightward momentum of the 2022 and 2024 elections.
- A POLITICO review of results in 268 county, town and village executive branch races found an average 10 point increase in the Democratic margin.
- Democrats made gains in at least 18 different county legislative bodies in November, flipping over 50 seats across the Empire State. They gained five seats in Oswego County, which Trump won by 27 points in 2024. They picked up five in Ulster by making inroads in towns that have been Republican for generations, winning their largest majority in county history. And they flipped five in Onondaga and gained their first majority there since the 1970s.
- For Republicans, the outcome painted a bleak picture: GOP candidates flipped one county legislative seat in the entire state.
- This November was only the second time since 1989 that Democrats won mayoral races in each of the state’s five largest cities. Sharon Owens was the first Democrat elected Syracuse’s mayor in 12 years, Sean Ryan received the most votes in a contested Buffalo race since 1981, and Mamdani received more votes than any Democratic nominee in New York City since at least 1965.
- All told, there were 118 municipal executive races outside of New York City this year that were contested in either 2021 or 2023. The number of ballots cast for Democrats grew from 1.3 million to 1.6 million, a 22 percent increase. The number for Republicans grew 1 percent to 1.6 million.
- That means that while the typical upstate or Long Island Democrat lost by 10 points in the last go-around, they received 50 percent of the vote this year.
- Democrats improved on their performance in 17 of the other 21 executive offices on the ballot on Long Island. And in the other major suburban county, Westchester’s Ken Jenkins had the best performance by a Democratic county executive candidate in two decades.
- The Democratic gains were thus much broader than those in 2017. The following year, New York Democrats flipped three congressional seats, and the number of people voting for Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial contest grew 76 percent in 2018 compared with 2014.
- The Republican path to a statewide victory involves running up the numbers in red parts of the state, doing well in suburban towns and minimizing the Democratic margin in New York City. All three of those need to happen in 2026 for a GOP win to be plausible in statewide contests — and this November, none of them did.
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