Less than 20 days from Election Day, new projections from the non-partisan race-rater Inside Elections shift 22 battleground seats in Democrats’ favor, including 16 Republican-held seats:
- AL-02 – Figures: Likely R → Lean R
- AR-02 – Hill: Solid R → Likely R
- AZ-01 – OPEN: Toss Up → Tilt D
- IA-02 – OPEN: Tilt R → Toss Up
- IN-05 – Spartz: Solid R → Likely R
- KY-06 – OPEN: Lean R → Tilt R
- ME-02 – OPEN: Likely R → Lean R
- MT-01 – OPEN: Lean R → Tilt R
- NE-01 – Flood: Solid R → Likely R
- NE-02 – OPEN: Tilt D → Lean D
- NV-02 – OPEN: Likely R → Lean R
- NJ-09 – Pou: Likely D → Solid D
- NY-19 – Riley: Likely D → Solid D
- NY-21 – OPEN: Likely R → Lean R
- NC-01 – Davis: Tilt R → Toss Up
- NC-11 – OPEN: Lean R → Toss Up
- OH-09 – Kaptur: Tilt R → Toss Up
- PA-07 – Mackenzie: Toss Up → Tilt D
- PA-08 – Bresnahan: Toss Up → Tilt D
- SC-01 – OPEN: Likely R → Lean R
- TX-15 – De La Cruz: Tilt R → Toss Up
- WY-AL – OPEN: Solid R → Likely R
The shifts follow surging momentum for Democrats, as race raters move dozens of races in their direction. Just since Labor Day, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Fox News have made 141 rating changes in Democrats’ favor. It’s clear enthusiasm is on Democrats’ side with DCCC canvassers knocking on over 2 million doors since spring.
DCCC Communications Director Courtney Rice:
“The clock is ticking on Republicans’ failed majority as Democrats surge towards Election Day. Candidates are focused on lowering costs, fighting for health care, and tackling Washington corruption. That’s a winning message for American families who are ready to elect Democrats to the House Majority.”
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