| Recent reporting from Signal Ohio confirms what Republicans across Ohio already fear: Democratic turnout is surging, unaffiliated voters are breaking hard for Democrats, and Republican voters are staying home as the GOP struggles to defend an unpopular agenda of driving up costs and gutting health care to hand tax breaks to billionaires.
In the May primary, Ohio Democrats nearly matched Republican turnout even with no competitive races at the top of either ticket. The numbers spell trouble for Ohio Republicans:
- 64% of registered Democrats voted in May, compared to just 54% of registered Republicans.
- 288,500 previously unaffiliated voters requested Democratic ballots, compared to just 180,400 who requested Republican ones.
- 43,500 registered Republicans crossed over to cast Democratic ballots.
The surge was even sharper in bellwether Cuyahoga County where Brian Poindexter is running to unseat Max Miller: Democratic turnout rose in 56 of 59 communities, while Republican turnout fell in all but three. The county posted its largest Democratic registration increase for a primary midterm election since at least 2014, growing by more than 44,000 voters.
Democrats’ momentum extends across the state, with especially strong gains in Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, and Columbus – all critical hubs for holding and flipping Ohio’s battleground House seats.
DCCC Spokesperson Riya Vashi:
“Alarm bells are ringing loud and clear for Ohio Republicans. Ohioans are done with a toxic GOP agenda that guts their health care, spikes their grocery bills, and drags the country into endless war. From Cleveland to Cincinnati to Columbus, voters are showing up in numbers Republicans have not seen in a decade because they’re ready to end Republican rule and flip the House this November.”
Read more about the warning signs for Republicans
Signal Ohio: Why Ohio Democrats nearly caught Republicans in primary election turnout
Post-election voter data shows turnout among Republicans dropped while more previously unaffiliated voters requested Democratic ballots.
- Ohioans cast more Republican ballots during the primary election in May. But Democrats still came surprisingly close.
- In the May 5 primary election, 907,273 Ohioans requested Republican ballots while 815,922 requested Democratic ballots, according to the official count from the Ohio Secretary of State’s Office.
- This was a dramatic change from the 2022 primary election, when Ohioans cast roughly 1.1 million Republican ballots, double the roughly 540,000 ballots that Democrats cast that year.
- A Signal Statewide analysis found the shift was driven by two main forces: Republican-affiliated voters turning out at lower rates than their Democratic counterparts, and previously unaffiliated voters choosing Democratic ballots far more often than Republican ones.
- Democratic turnout surged despite there being no competitive races at the top of the ticket, a sign of high enthusiasm among these voters.
- Republican turnout also was soft in Ohio’s largest counties, which are home to many GOP voters even though Democrats regularly win them comfortably overall. Cuyahoga, Summit and Franklin all fell in the bottom half of Republican turnout rates.
- Meanwhile, voters cast 815,922 Democratic ballots in May – which is nearly 36,000 more ballots than there were registered Democrats heading into the election.
- The reason? The support Democrats got from the pool of 5.7 million unaffiliated voters. These voters are a mix of people who’d previously voted in a partisan primary but not recently, and those who have never voted in a partisan primary election at all.
- These new – or at least previously unengaged – Democrats were especially concentrated in some key areas for the party: the Cleveland/Akron area (Cuyahoga, Lorain, Lake, Portage and Summit counties), Cincinnati (Hamilton County) and Columbus (Franklin and Fairfield counties).
- As a result, the number of Democratic votes cast exceeded the number of previously registered Democrats in 49 of Ohio’s 88 counties. Republican votes didn’t exceed the number of previously registered Republicans in any county.
- About 43,500 registered Republicans cast Democratic ballots last month, while about 13,200 registered Democrats requested Republican ballots.
- Overall, 40,262 more Democratic ballots were cast in Cuyahoga County compared to four years earlier, while voters cast 17,729 fewer Republican ones.
- “I think this bodes well for November in this county,” [Chairman of the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party David] Brock said.
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