TO:                    Interested Parties
FROM:               DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department

LONGJOHN FENDS OFF GOP ATTACKS, GAINS ON UPTON

In an early-October DCCC Analytics survey of likely November voters, Democrat Matt Longjohn is now within the margin of error and down by three points (49-46%), despite Republican smears and big spending by outside conservative special interest groups.

After being nearly tied with Upton among women voters in August, Longjohn now has a three-point lead (49% to 46%). Among voters over 65, after trailing by 12, Longjohn is now within five-points, 45% to Upton’s 50%. Longjohn has grown his lead among college-educated voters, from five points in August to 10 points this month, 52% to 42%. Longjohn leads by 11-points in Kalamazoo, 52% to 41%.

Longjohn is still relatively unknown to many voters in the district; 57% of voters can identify him. However, those that can identify Longjohn have overall positive views of him. 32% view him positively versus 25% who view him negatively. Upton on the other hand is well known and unpopular. 83% of likely voters can identify Upton, but 39% view him positively versus 44% who view him negatively

NATIONAL REPUBLICANS ARE UNPOPULAR IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN

President Trump sees middling job approval. 45% of voters in MI-06 approve of his job performance while 47% disapprove. Likely voters also disapprove of Upton’s job performance, with 40% approving versus 43% disapproving.

About the District: MI-06 is one of 14 congressional districts in Michigan. The district is mostly rural (67.2%), with 29.3% suburban. 71.5% of the white population are non-college graduates. Clinton (45.5%) and Obama (49.3%) lost the district most recently, though Obama won in 2008 (54.0%). The latest DPI is 45.4%.

Methodology: These results are based on a survey of 605 likely MI-06 November 2018 general election voters in Michigan’s Sixth Congressional district, conducted by the DCCC from October 9-10, 2018. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.