Republican Congressman: “Will there be more retirements? Most certainly there will be, for a range of reasons.”
Another Republican Congressman: “Being in the minority weighs on members’ decision-making. … It is a new reality for many.”
Another, Another Republican Congressman: ”I believe there will be more to come”
Republicans cannot stop talking about other Republicans retiring… and it looks like they’re not done. Can you really blame them? While Democratic Members are in their districts, connecting with their constituents on local issues, Washington Republicans are looking for the right time to announce their exits.
And it’s not just the daily grind of defending their attempts to undermine Americans’ health care that’s got Republicans looking for a way out. A Washington Post analysis suggests that Republicans are essentially giving up on trying to “defy history and become the first caucus to flip the House majority during a presidential election since 1952.”
DCCC Spokesperson, Cole Leiter released the following statement:
“Republicans in Washington can’t escape their deeply unpopular health care repeal agenda, and the five surprise retirements in the last two weeks are a good indication that everyone in the House GOP caucus has seen the writing on the wall that they’re not escaping life in the minority any time soon. Don’t ask us, or even the DCCC’s famed ‘Retirement Watch List,’ take it straight from Republicans: there are more retirements coming.”
By the Numbers:
Retirements this Congress: 8
Retirements in the last two weeks: 5
From the DCCC’s Retirement Watch List: 3
What people are saying:
MSNBC: Republican House Members Retiring
Politico: Republicans rattled after surge of retirements
The House GOP has been smacked by a wave of retirements over the past few weeks — but some Republicans fear the worst is yet to come.
With the GOP relegated to the minority for the first time in eight years, a mix of veteran and vulnerable members have decided to call it quits instead of sticking around to see whether the party wins back power in 2020.
Over the past two weeks alone, five Republicans — including a member of the Republican leadership team — said they would not seek reelection. And that comes after Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana, who leads recruitment efforts for the House GOP’s campaign arm and is one of the few Republican women left in the House, shocked her colleagues by announcing her retirement earlier this summer.
“Will there be more retirements? Most certainly there will be, for a range of reasons,” said Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.), who announced his own retirement last week.
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“I believe there will be more to come,” said Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.), co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. “Being in the minority weighs on members’ decision-making. … It is a new reality for many.”
Now, with members back home with their families and constituents for the long August recess, Capitol Hill is buzzing about who will be the next lawmaker to hang up their voting card.
[…]
History suggests that an uptick in retirements is common for the minority party after a shift in power. More than a dozen House Democrats left Congress after the 2010 tea party wave that swept Republicans back to power — and seven House Republicans have already announced their departures from politics, just seven months into the cycle.
“Unfortunately, I am afraid there may be more coming,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, which supports centrist Republicans in swing districts.
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Olson, who came to Congress in 2009, would have faced a competitive reelection battle in his district in the Houston suburbs, where he just narrowly fended off a Democratic challenger last year. And Democrats are dumping resources into Texas this cycle, hoping to build on their gains in the midterms.
Washington Post: Analysis | House Republican retirements reflect transformation of party in Trump era
Rep. K. Michael Conaway has long been in charge of cleaning up messes made by other Republicans.
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But on Wednesday, Conaway — respected enough that he was occasionally floated as a potential compromise GOP speaker — announced he would retire next year rather than run for a ninth term.
He became the eighth Republican this year to announce retirement plans, including five in the past few days as the House wrapped up its session and headed out for a 46-day summer recess. Most of those GOP retirements, so far, come from safely red seats — Conaway’s West Texas district went for Trump by a nearly 59-point margin in 2016.
Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah), facing a similar term limit as top Republican on the Natural Resources Committee, confirmed his decision to retire a few days ago.
These retirements by influential Republicans suggest that there is increasing doubt about whether they can defy history and become the first caucus to flip the House majority during a presidential election since 1952. If he had stuck around, Conaway had a chance to become the top Republican on the Intelligence Committee, while Bishop is near the top of the Armed Services Committee.
The unspoken fear among Republicans is that more retirements could be on the way, particularly over this long recess as members of Congress spend time with their families, travel their district or make official overseas trips.
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Changes in the House majority are often followed by a large number of retirements. In 2008, after the Democratic sweep of the 2006 midterms, 27 House Republicans retired. In 1996, after the 1994 midterms gave the GOP its majority in 40 years, 29 Democrats decided to leave the House.
The longer-term issue from all these retirements might just be the quality of lawmakers serving in the Capitol.
Again and again, those heading for the exits tend to come from the ranks of respected veterans who do not fit in this era of Congress, when controversial statements produce social media attention and then cable news hits, leading to large online fundraising hauls.
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Republicans should be more alarmed by the retirement decisions of Reps. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.), who is in just his second term, and Martha Roby (Ala.), once considered a rising star from the class of 2010.
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