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Though California congressional district nominees will be solidified in key battleground races tomorrow, one thing is certain today – California is a golden opportunity for Democrats.
In primary round-up after round-up, analysts note Democrats are on the offense in the state of California. Heading towards November, radical Republicans Mike Garcia and Michelle Steel have never been more vulnerable, while Reps. David Valadao and Young Kim are struggling to even make it past Tuesday’s primary elections.
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National Journal Hotline: Meet the six House Republicans still sweating reelection
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Half of the six targeted Republicans hail from California, where a nonpartisan redistricting process scrambled the congressional lines. Rep. David Valadao represents the most Biden-friendly district of any Republican currently in the House, and his seat turned even more Democratic (from Biden +11 to Biden +13) as part of the redistricting process.
Roll Call: Seven questions about Tuesday’s primaries in seven states
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GOP Reps. Mike Garcia, Michelle Steel and Valadao are all in races currently rated Toss-up by Inside Elections. While the field is crowded, Garcia may well face Democrat Christy Smith, a former member of the state assembly who lost both a special and a general election to Garcia in 2020. In its new configuration, Biden would have won the district by more than 12 points in 2020. In California’s new 45th District, Steel and Democrat Jay Chen are expected to face off in the general election in a race that both parties plan to prioritize. Biden would have won it by 6 points in 2020.
POLITICO: Weekly Score
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[Reps. David Valadao and Young Kim] appear to be facing uncomfortably close primary contests on Tuesday — and a loss by either could seriously endanger the GOP’s hold on their swing seats in the fall.
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National Republicans are so concerned about this prospect that their top super PAC has poured some $1.9 million into their districts to prevent the incumbents from finishing behind another Republican in their June 7 all-party primary and getting locked out of November. Public polling has been scarce, but private surveys suggest that outcome is possible in both races.
The Hill: House GOP incumbents battling primary challengers running to their right
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In California, freshman Rep. Young Kim and the Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, have recently pumped more than $2 million into the primary with television ads. That is more than the next three House races in California combined, NBC News reported, citing the ad tracking firm AdImpact.
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California uses a non-party primary system, meaning Kim, Raths, Democratic candidate Asif Mahmood and another GOP candidate Nick Taurus will all be on the ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to the general election, so splitting the GOP vote could put Kim at risk.
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