| The hits keep coming for Andy Ogles and Cory Mills as their chances for re-election dwindle by the minute.
New reporting from NOTUS reveals a tough future ahead for Ogles and Mills as the two face “weak fundraising and ethics issues” – with Ogles only raising $200,000 amidst campaign finance violations in the last two quarters, and Mills bringing in a measly $60,000 last quarter while facing allegations of domestic violence and stolen valor.
Even Republicans are souring on Ogles and Mills, with neither campaign receiving money from Mike Johnson’s fundraising committees, and a GOP strategist admitting there is “very serious concern” about the two within the party.
REMINDER: Cook Political Report recently shifted its predictions for TN-05 and FL-07 in Democrats’ favor, building on growing momentum and putting them squarely on the map for 2026.
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NOTUS: Democrats Believe Scandal and Weak Fundraising Put These Red Seats in Play
- House Democrats think they can expand their 2026 midterm map to include a couple of typically safe red districts because the incumbents have twin vulnerabilities: weak fundraising and ethics issues.
- Florida Republican Rep. Cory Mills faced allegations of stolen valor, domestic violence and shady business dealings this campaign cycle, and those issues appear to have deteriorated his campaign’s ability to bring in cash.
- Last fall, between October and December, Mills raised a mere $61,000 — incredibly low numbers from a candidate who had never struggled to raise well over $100,000, often more than $200,000, every quarter since his election in 2022.
- Ogles [raised] $209,000 in [the last two quarters of 2025], as the congressman attempts to fend off an investigation into alleged campaign finance violations.
- In 2024, Mills and Ogles won their own races by 13 and 17 percentage points, respectively. Although those margins are typically outside of striking distance to attract challengers, Democratic campaign brass smells blood in the water. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the two districts on its 2026 “districts in play” list, which opens up their Democratic challengers’ funding and campaign resources.
- As evidence of the momentum for the Democrats, The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan political handicapper, downgraded the races from “solid” to “likely” Republican last month. While the GOP is still favored to hang on, Democratic operators are betting that they can shake these districts loose against these embattled incumbents by deploying strong candidate recruitment and fundraising.
- There is “very serious concern” among Republicans about Ogles’ poor fundraising numbers, a GOP strategist involved in House races previously told NOTUS.
- Even if Ogles and Mills win their primaries, the misconduct allegations they face will be campaign fodder this fall.
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