|
Last night’s Democratic victory in the special election to fill Alaska’s lone House seat has the NRCC scrambling to find excuses for the second time in as many weeks after losing another special election they were favored to win.
Democrat and Alaska Native Mary Peltola clinched 51.5% of the vote in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, overperforming Pres. Biden’s 2020 margin by 13 points and Alaska’s partisan lean by 18 points. Peltola’s win continues Democrats’ trend of overperforming in every special election since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling overturned Roe v. Wade and opened the door for Republicans to pass an extreme nationwide abortion ban.
Alaska Continues Post-Dobbs Trend of Democratic Overperformance
In the six elections – five specials and one ballot question – since Dobbs, Democrats have outperformed partisanship:
- AK-AL: Democrat Mary Peltola beat Republican Sarah Palin in the final round of ranked-choice voting by three points in a state Trump won by 10. Republican outside groups massively outspent Democrats – over $1.2 million to lose.
- NY-23: Democrat Max Della Pia lost to Republican Joseph Sempolinski by just six points in a Trump +12 district.
- NY-19: Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro by two points in a true swing district that Pres. Biden won with 50.7% in 2020 – despite being outspent 3:1.
- Kansas: Nearly six in 10 Kansans voted against Republicans’ attempts to repeal the state constitution’s abortion rights protection in a state Donald Trump won by 15 points. The margin was even higher – seven in 10 – in competitive KS-03.
- MN-01: Democrat Jeff Ettinger lost by just four points to Republican Brad Finstad in a Trump +10 district.
- NE-01: Democrat Patty Pansing Brooks lost to Republican Mike Flood by just six points in a Trump +11 district.
Voters Are Sprinting Away from Flawed, Anti-Choice Republicans
In competitive races across the country, Republicans have chosen “less-than-optimal” candidates whose flawed records and extreme, anti-choice views will send general election voters sprinting in the other direction. From Sandy Smith in NC-01, to John Gibbs in MI-03, to Yesli Vega in VA-07, the NRCC will have a hard time dragging their motley crew of toxic candidates across the finish line in battleground districts.
BOTTOM LINE: Put away the tape measure, Kevin McCarthy – Tom Emmer can’t get the job done.
|
