With the election 63 days away, it seems like each week gets worse and worse for the imperiled Republican majority. House Republicans spent August recess under the dark cloud of growing scandals and indictments, while Democrats saw race rating shifts and launched powerful television ads, focused on the issues that matter to voters.
Here’s a brief recap of the stories keeping Republicans up at night as well as some of the excellent coverage Democrats have received from the last month (and make sure to scroll through to see some great ads!).
Republican Culture of Corruption
House Republicans were confronted by new scandals almost daily throughout August, involving everything from indictments, special prosecutors, inside trailing, tax cuts for yachts and shady foreign loans, failing to disclose sketchy businesses, and much more.
Here’s a brief recap of the numerous scandals hanging over Republicans’ heads as we approach election day:
Duncan Hunter (CA-50)
- Hunter was indicted for alleged misuse of $250,00 worth of campaign funds for personal expenses and the filing of false campaign finance records.
- San Diego Union Tribune: Rep. Duncan Hunter and wife indicted on fraud and campaign finance charges
Vern Buchanan (FL-16)
- Buchanan bought a yacht with a giant loan from a foreign bank that lobbied heavily in favor of tax reform.
- Florida Politics: Foreign bank floated funds for Vern Buchanan’s yacht as it lobbied for tax reform
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
- The field director for Rodney Davis’ reelection campaign was arrested and charged with aggravated battery after becoming physically violent at a fundraiser for Davis’ opponent, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan.
- News-Gazette: Editorial: Davis should address questions about former aide
Tom MacArthur (NJ-03)
- It was revealed last week that the architect of Republicans’ Repeal & Ripoff Bill, Tom MacArthur, took $37,000 from companies currently being sued for their role in the opioid crisis.
- New Jersey Globe: MacArthur took $37k from drug companies involved in opioid crisis
Chris Collins (NY-27)
- Collins was arrested and indicted earlier this month by the FBI for insider trading charges for participating in a scheme to sell the shares of an Australian biotech company before the public disclosure of a failed drug trial. He has since suspended his bid for Congress.
- Washington Post: New York congressman facing insider trading charges suspends reelection bid
Jason Lewis (MN-02)
- Recently released tapes from Lewis’ days as a radio host have revealed that Lewis made many offensive and disparaging comments about women, people of color, Americans with disabilities, and other minority groups.
- Star Tribune: Lewis again grapples with fallout from old on-air remarks
Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01)
- Fitzpatrick has been slammed in multiple reports for taking money from Jack Abramoff’s former business partner, Adam Kidan, who served 31 months in jail then spent three years on probation after pleading guilty to fraud and conspiracy.
- TPM: GOP Took Large Sums From Abramoff’s Ex-Con Former Business Partner
Marty Nothstein (PA-07)
- Republican Candidate Marty Nothstein was placed on unpaid level from his position as executive director of the Lehigh Valley velodrome after the board was notified he was the subject of a sexual misconduct allegation.
- Allentown Morning Call: Lehigh Valley velodrome board put Pennsylvania congressional candidate Marty Nothstein on leave after sexual misconduct allegation
John Culberson (TX-07)
- Culberson sold all his shares of the Australian biotech shares at the center of Collins’ indictment just 10 days before it crashed. He has refused to answer questions related to this purchase.
- Houston Chronicle: Houston congressman sold biotech stock 10 days before insider trading case came to a head
- A resident of Culberson’s district filed FEC and OCE complaints in response to Culberson spending $50,000 to buy fossils, Civil War memorabilia, and books with his campaign account.
- Houston Chronicle: Democrats question $50k in books and collectibles that Rep. Culberson bought with campaign funds
Scott Taylor (VA-02)
- A special prosecutor is looking into allegations of election fraud over signatures Taylor’s paid campaign staff gathered to place a third party candidate on the ballot in November.
- TPM: Rep. Called Constituent In Effort To Bury First Allegation Of Signature Forgery
- The Virginian-Pilot: Virginian-Pilot investigation: 4 dead people, nearly 60 fraudulent signatures found on Shaun Brown petitions
Paul Ryan’s Super PAC Universally Condemned for Blatant Lies & Unethical Tactics – Attacks CIA Officer
Speaker Paul Ryan’s Super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, was universally condemned by editorial boards, reporters and Republican strategists alike for their blatant lies, shameless attacks on veterans and CIA operatives, and utter incompetence throughout August. Last week, multiple news reports revealed that American Rising and CLF were illegally provided with former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger’s private unredacted personnel file and they spread it far and wide, violating her privacy and security. CLF has also been condemned for running ads that include race-baiting, blatant lies, and baseless and unhinged attacks, including against multiple veterans.
- CA-39, ME-02, NY-19, NY-22, NJ-07, OH-01: Washington Post: Fact-checking Republican attack ads in tight House races
- CO-06: VIDEO: CBS Denver: Reality Check: Republican Super PAC’s Ad Against Democrat Jason Crow
- NJ-03/07: Star Ledger: EDITORIAL: MacArthur-backed tax cut may finally trickle down – to his own re-election campaign
- NJ-07: Star Ledger: EDITORIAL: New GOP strategy backing Lance: Sell fear
- NY-19: Times Herald-Record: EDITORIAL: Condemn both racism and those who fuel it
- OH-01: Cincinnati Enquirer: Ad watch: Misleading ad tries to connect Aftab Pureval with Libya
- VA-07: Washington Post: EDITORIAL: A security form became a political weapon. We should all be alarmed.
- VA-07: CNBC: Democratic House candidate Abigail Spanberger suffers the kind of election year smear John McCain would recognize
Election Prognosticators Shift 38 Races to the Left
Non-partisan election forecasters Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections both released updated race rankings in August, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifting 10 races towards Democrats and Inside Election moving a whopping 30 races.
Both prognosticators cited the growing culture of corruption surrounded House Republicans as one of the reasons for Democrats’ enhanced odds, with Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales writing, ‘Republicans have dozens of fires around the country, and the party might not have enough resources to put them all out. GOP outside groups can’t spend at the same level this fall that was required in the special elections.’
From Inside Elections:
- AZ-01 (Tom O’Halleran)
- Tilt D to Lean D
- CA-48 (Dana Rohrabacher)
- Tilt R to Toss Up
- CA-49 (Open)
- Toss-Up to Tilt D
- CO-06 (Mike Coffman)
- Tilt R to Toss-Up
- FL-16 (Vern Buchanan)
- Solid R to Likely R
- FL-18 (Brian Mast)
- Solid R to Likely R
- IL-06 (Peter Roskam)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- IL-12 (Mike Bost)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- IL-13 (Rodney Davis)
- Likely R to Lean R
- IA-03 (David Young)
- Likely R to Tilt R
- IA-04 (Steve King)
- Solid R to Likely R
- KS-02 (Open)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- KS-03 (Kevin Yoder)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- MI-08 (Mike Bishop)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- NY-19 (John Faso)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- NY-22 (Claudia Tenney)
- Tilt R to Toss-up
- NC-02 (George Holding)
- Solid R to Likely R
- NC-13 (Ted Budd)
- Likely R to Lean R
- OH-01 (Steve Chabot)
- Likely R to Lean R
- PA-16 (Mike Kelly)
- Solid R to Likely R
- PA-17 (Keith Rothfus)
- Toss-up to Lean D
- TX-31 (John Carter)
- Solid R to Likely R
- VA-02 (Scott Taylor)
- Likely R to Lean R
- VA-07 (Dave Brat)
- Lean R to Tilt R
- VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)
- Toss-up to Tilt D
- WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler)
- Solid R to Likely R
- WA-05 (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)
- Likely R to Lean R
- WV-03 (Open)
- Likely R to Lean R
From Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
- AK-AL (Don Young)
- Safe R to Likely R
- CA-50 (Duncan Hunter)
- Safe R to Leans R
- IL-13 (Rodney Davis)
- Likely R to Leans R
- IL-14 (Randy Hultgren)
- Likely R to Leans R
- NC-09 (Open)
- Toss-up to Leans D
- NJ-03 (Tom MacArthur)
- Leans R to Toss-up
- OH-14 (Dave Joyce)
- Likely R to Leans R
- TX-02 (Open)
- Safe R to Likely R
- TX-22 (Pete Olson)
- Safe R to Likely R
- WA-08 (Open)
- Toss-up to Leans D
Spotlight on Democratic Ads!
While House Republicans are embroiled in a dark cloud of corruption, relying on CLF ads that involve race-baiting, blatant lies, and baseless and unhinged attacks, Democrats across the country have released spots that focus on their deep records of service and commitment to lower healthcare costs, increased wages, protecting Social Security, Medicare, and coverage for people with preexisting conditions.
Take a look…
AR-02: Clarke Tucker
- Clarke Tucker released the television ad, ‘Who is Clarke’, that depicts the women of Clarke’s life, including his mom, grandma, and wife, describing who Clarke is to them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sN9lGJN0oBo&feature=youtu.be
CA-48: Harley Rouda
- Democratic candidate Harley Rouda released the television ad, ‘Jobs’, that highlights his bio as a business owner that has created thousands of good jobs.
C0-06: Jason Crow
- Democratic candidate Jason Crow released his first television ad of the general election, ‘Service’, highlighting his working-class upbringing and record of service to his country.
IL-12: Brendan Kelly
- Democratic candidate Brendan Kelly released the television ad, ‘Jennifer,’ that focuses on the opioid crisis devastating Southern Illinois and his actions as a prosecutor to force Big Pharma companies to take responsibility for their deadly actions.
NC-13: Kathy Manning
- Democratic candidate Kathy Manning released her second general election television ad, ‘Blessings’, highlighting her personal connection to the outrageous cost of prescription drugs and fight for affordable health care, including for those with pre-existing conditions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gce6tUj6eXw&feature=youtu.be
NM-02: Xochitl Torres Small
- Democratic candidate Xochitl Torres Small released her campaign’s first general election ad, ‘Life’, that focused on her work to protect access to water, develop drought legislation, and secure funding for new conservation methods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlW2u5OtiVs
NJ-03: Andy Kim
- Andy Kim released his first general election ad, ‘Service’ that highlights Kim’s service to the community, including his work as a national security office under both Republican and Democratic Presidents.
NY-11: Max Rose
- Democratic candidate Max Rose released his first television ad in the general election, ‘Leader’, that highlights his military service as an infantry platoon commander in the Army and decision not to take corporate PAC money.
OH-01: Aftab Pureval
- In his first general election TV ad, ‘Sunshine’, Democratic candidate Aftab Pureval highlights his personal story as the son of a refugee and his work to clean up the Hamilton County Courts.
VA-02: Elaine Luria
- Democratic candidate Elaine Luria released her second ad of the general election race, ‘Fight for Virginia’, that focuses on her profile as a Naval Commander, small business owner, and mother. It also shares her priorities to protect Medicare and Social Security, provide affordable healthcare for all Virginians, and ensure fellow veterans receive the benefits they have earned.
Red to Blue Successes
As the primary season draws to a close, the DCCC’s Red to Blue program has enjoyed tremendous success. Of the 41 candidates put on the DCCC’s Red to Blue Program before their primaries, 39 have gotten through to the General.
- The NYT’s FiveThirtyEight analyzed hundreds of 2018 endorsements, and the DCCC’s Red to Blue program has one of the best records in the country.
- The DCCC’s Red to Blue Program is reflective of the incredible class of Democratic candidates running to take back Congress this November.
- The majority of the 73 Red to Blue candidates are women
- The program includes 24 candidates who are under 40, 18 veterans, and 2 female CIA agents