Bloomberg: “Democrats Hold Early Midterms Advantage”

After campaigning on lowering the high cost of living, Republicans have failed to enact an agenda that makes life better for everyday Americans. Instead, costs are going up because of Trump’s sweeping tariffs and health insurance costs are skyrocketing due to GOP inaction.

In a story this weekend from Bloomberg, nonpartisan election analysts predict that voters will hold the failed Republican trifecta accountable in nine months – powering House Democrats to retake the majority. 

Read the story from Bloomberg below.

Bloomberg: Democrats Hold Early Midterms Advantage With Trump Under Fire
Alicia Diaz, Erik Wasson | January 24, 2026

• House Democrats are kicking off 2026 with the political winds blowing in their favor: advantageous polling, voters underwhelmed with President Donald Trump’s second term and a history of opposition gains in midterm elections.
• “It’s pretty clear that the headwinds for Republicans are strong, if you put together Trump’s approval rating, voters’ continuing frustration with the state of the economy and the president’s handling of that, on top of what look to be significant enthusiasm advantages for Democratic candidates,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
• Walter’s publication recently shifted 18 House races toward Democrats, bringing the number of seats considered solidly blue to 189, compared to 186 for Republicans. A party needs 218 seats to win the majority.
• On top of that, a poll from the New York Times and Siena University this week showed that a majority of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of key issues, with less than a third saying the country is better off than it was when he took office a year ago. That prompted outrage from the president, who said on social media that “Fake and Fraudulent Polling should be, virtually, a criminal offense.”
• Democrats are betting they can sustain their advantage with a sharpening focus on affordability after some bigger-than-expected election victories in November. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries exuded confidence about that approach at a recent news conference, saying “Trump’s administration has been a complete and total disaster on the economy, and the American people know it.”
• A core element of the Democratic strategy will be highlighting Republican opposition to extending expired Obamacare health-care subsidies, which are sending out-of-pocket premiums soaring for more than 20 million people, and Medicaid cuts that are set to take effect after the election. Democrats are also targeting Trump’s tariff regime, telling consumers they’re the ones paying for the higher duties, a claim backed by a recent study.
• “Trump said, ‘I’m going to lower costs on day one.’ It’s been broken promise after broken promise after broken promise,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene said in an interview. “We’re in a strong position to take back the majority, and we will take back the majority in 2027.”
• Polls show Trump’s disapproval is related both to the cost of everyday items and his previous rhetoric that affordability is a “hoax” not worthy of his full attention, Walter said.
• Perceptions of the economy matter more than the actual economic data at this point, said Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan publication produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
• Kondik said the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term were tough for House Republicans and perceptions of the economy were better then than they are now. With voters’ views hardening, improvement in the macroeconomic environment between now and November would “probably only be helpful to a degree” for Republicans, while Democratic enthusiasm to restrain Trump are high, he added.
• “All that combines together for at this point looks like should be a pretty good Democratic political environment,” he said.

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