Today, the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report downgraded Congressman David Valadao’s reelection chances, shifting the race in California’s 21st Congressional District from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
“This ratings change shows Congressman Valadao’s vulnerability ahead of this year’s election,” said DCCC Spokesman Andrew Godinich. “From his vote for the GOP healthcare bill which would’ve devastated working families, to his 99% voting record with President Trump, Valadao has clearly shown that his allegiance is to Washington – not to the Central Valley.”
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April House Overview: Ratings Changes in 13 Districts
Cook Political Report
By David Wasserman
[…] The bad news for Republicans, of course, is that Trump’s approval rating is still 40 percent and that they still trail Democrats on the generic ballot by eight points. That’s enough to offset the GOP’s edge from favorably drawn districts and endanger their 23-seat majority (by our estimate, Democrats would need to win seven to eight percent more votes for House to win 218 of 435 seats).
Moreover, in a reversal from the 2014 midterms, Democrats enjoy a wide voter enthusiasm gap. According to a new CNN/SSRS survey, 51 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaners said they were “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in November compared to 36 percent of Republicans/GOP leaners. Young voters, Trump’s weakest age segment, also express far more interest in casting ballots than they did four years ago.
This enthusiasm gap has been on display in off-year and special elections all cycle, including last month in Pennsylvania’s 18th CD, where Democrat Conor Lamb won a district Trump had carried by over 19 points. Despite two personal visits from Trump and a robust field program orchestrated by the GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, turnout as a share of 2016 was still seven points higher in Democratic-leaning Allegheny County than it was in GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.
[…] Our latest ratings feature 55 competitive seats (Toss Up or Lean Democratic/Republican), including 50 currently held by Republicans and five held by Democrats. There are also three non-competitive seats poised to switch parties thanks to Pennsylvania’s new map (PA-05 and PA-06 to Democrats, PA-14 to Republicans). Overall, Democrats would need to win 27 of the 55 competitive races to win a majority. We continue to view Democrats the slight favorites for House control.
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