Cook Political Report Calls Sean Casten Favorite to Replace Vulnerable Incumbent Peter Roskam in Congress
Amid clear signs of Democratic momentum — and multiple reports that national Republicans are considering writing off vulnerable incumbent Peter Roskam — the Cook Political Report shifted its ratings this morning in favor of Democrats Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood. The report cited the strong campaigns the Casten and Underwood are running, their fundraising advantages, and the “especially strong headwinds” from the Governor’s race, where Bruce Rauner trails by double-digits, which is particularly “treacherous for GOP members who lack their own strong brand, such as Hultgren.”
“Sean Casten and Lauren Underwood are riding a surge of voter enthusiasm, having successfully introduced themselves to voters with messages that are resonating across their districts. They have both been subject to nasty, misleading attacks but polls show the attacks just aren’t sticking. Voters know what matters here: that career politicians Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren voted to kick tens of thousands of Illinoisans off their healthcare, gut protections for pre-existing conditions, and give a massive tax handout to the wealthy and big corporations. With Election Day fast approaching, it’s clear that Democrats have all of the momentum and are ready to flip these seats.” said DCCC spokesperson Sean Savett.
Yesterday, the New York Times reported that national Republicans are considering withdrawing funding from a number of vulnerable incumbents, including Peter Roskam, and the Washington Post noted that the NRCC IE has “no money reserved to defend Roskam.”
The Cook Political Report write-ups are available online here and see highlights below:
IL-06:
“Roskam … is now trailing scientist and energy businessman Sean Casten in both parties’ polling. And Roskam’s attacks on Casten don’t seem to be sticking. These high-income Chicago suburbs are unraveling for the GOP .. it voted for Hillary Clinton 50 percent to 43 percent in 2016. Roskam, the former House GOP chief deputy whip, voted for his party’s healthcare and tax bills. And now, Casten and the DCCC are pounding Roskam for voting with President Trump “94 percent of the time.”
…
“The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund used August and September to go nuclear on Casten … But while the NRCC is continuing to spend out of loyalty to Roskam, the CLF hasn’t seen much return on its investment and may opt out.
“Casten announced raising $2.6 million in the third quarter alone, more than Roskam had in cash on hand at the end of June. But the real GOP fear is that Gov. Bruce Rauner is polling so badly in his reelection race that he could drag others down with him. This race is far from over, but Casten is the favorite today.
IL-14:
“A Siena College/New York Times poll taken the past week showed Hultgren leading Democratic nurse and former HHS official Lauren Underwood 47 percent to 43 percent. But the poll also found the four-term GOP incumbent unknown to 42 percent of voters, an ominous omen for a down-the-line conservative in a heavily suburban seat that voted for President Trump just 48 percent to 45 percent.
“When Republican strategists express worry about getting buried by a ‘green wave’ of Democratic cash, the expensive Chicago media market could be a prime example. Hultgren, not known for his pizzazz, had $1 million on hand at the end of June. But the 32-year old Underwood raised $2 million in the most recent fundraising quarter and could outspend Hultgren considerably in the final stretch.
“Underwood has been up on air since mid-September with an ad talking about her pre-existing heart condition and how Hultgren’s vote to repeal the ACA inspired her to run. This week, Hultgren and the NRCC felt compelled to respond with ads accusing Underwood of being “bankrolled” by state House Speaker Mike Madigan’s machine and supporting a “government takeover of healthcare.”
“The big danger for Illinois Republicans: Gov. Bruce Rauner is getting trounced in his reelection race and could drag others down with him. A new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics poll found Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot in Illinois 57 percent to 35 percent. That’s particularly treacherous for GOP members who lack their own strong brand, such as Hultgren.”