Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted Republican Congressman Rodney Davis’s seat in Illinois’s 13th Congressional District from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” In changing the rating, Cook’s David Wasserman notes that, more than a year out, “this race is already engaged,” with Democratic challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, who has “barely stopped running” since 2018 closing the fundraising gap with Davis. Cook Political also points to several of Davis’s vulnerabilities such as Davis flying first class during the government shutdown and reflexively tying himself to Trump when the president carried the district by a mere five points in 2016.
“Congressman Rodney Davis and Washington Republicans are already running scared in Illinois’s 13th Congressional District and this rating change is simply further proof that Davis’s days as a bought and paid for career politician are numbered,” said DCCC Spokesperson Courtney Rice. “Folks in Illinois deserve a representative like Betsy Dirksen Londrigan who won’t be bought by special interests and who will do what’s best for the district.”
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IL-13 – Challenger: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D)
Toss Up. Londrigan impressed Democratic strategists by coming within 2,058 votes (less than one point) of knocking off GOP Rep. Rodney Davis in 2018. The race wasn’t initially in Democrats’ top tier of targets but the professional non-profit fundraiser raised $4.2 million and outspent the self-styled moderate incumbent. She barely stopped running and had $721,000 in the bank to the incumbent’s $905,000 at the end of September.
Londrigan comes across more crisply and seasoned than she did as a first-time candidate in 2018. She partially blames her narrow loss on unexpectedly long lines to vote at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign she says were caused by a GOP election administrator who has since left office. Driving out a large student vote in this college-heavy district is the key to Londrigan’s chances in 2020.
This race is already engaged: Democrats are hammering Davis for accepting an upgrade to fly first class during the government shutdown, taking corporate PAC checks and telling a Washington Post reporter “I don’t see what the big deal is, frankly” regarding President Trump’s proposed G-7 summit at Doral (Trump carried this seat by just five points in 2016). Davis hopes to be able to tie Londrigan to a more liberal nominee. It’s a Toss Up.
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