Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the race in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District to toss-up citing the strong candidacy of Democratic nominee Cindy Axne. Axne, who recently outraised Young in the latest fundraising period, also released a poll this week showing her campaign ahead by 4 points.
Cook’s David Wasserman noted that, “After emerging from a turbulent primary process, Axne’s campaign has developed into a serious threat to the incumbent.”
“Cindy Axne is the triple-threat of a first-time candidate, small business owner and fifth-generation Iowan who is putting David Young on notice,” said DCCC Rachel Irwin. “Young cannot defend his record of voting to raise healthcare costs and gut protections for those with pre-existing conditions. Given Axne’s strong fundraising and grassroots momentum, she’s on track to unseat Young this November.”
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IOWA HOUSE
IA-03: Young Moves From Lean Republican to Toss Up
By David Wasserman
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/iowa-house/ia-03-young-moves-lean-republican-toss
This Des Moines district has frustrated Democrats before, but it’s exactly the kind of seat that will decide the House. Barack Obama won it by four points in 2012, but it voted for President Trump 48 percent to 45 percent in 2016. GOP Rep. David Young hasn’t cracked 54 percent since winning the seat in 2014, and the former chief of staff to Sen. Chuck Grassley lacks a truly independent political brand. Last year, he voted for the AHCA and the GOP tax bill.
However, Democrats took a while to sort themselves out here this cycle. Digital design businesswoman Cindy Axne wasn’t her party’s front-runner in 2017, but caught a break this March when real estate businesswoman Theresa Greenfield dropped out of the race after discovering her staff forged ballot petitions. In June, Axne won the Democratic primary against two well-funded men with an impressive 58 percent of the vote.
Axne grew up on the south side of Des Moines, where her height served her well on the high school basketball team. She graduated from the University of Iowa, earned an MBA at Northwestern and worked for the Tribune Company in Chicago before moving back to Iowa to raise her family. She worked as a strategic planner for state agencies under Govs. Chet Culver and Terry Branstad, and successfully lobbied her local school district for full-day kindergarten.
After emerging from a turbulent primary process, Axne’s campaign has developed into a serious threat to the incumbent. Between April and June, Axne outraised Young $657,000 to $538,000 (Young still had more cash on hand, $1.4 million to $465,000). She’ll try to capitalize on Democratic enthusiasm in Des Moines and its suburbs while talking about spending time on her grandparents’ Warren County farm to connect with rural voters.
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This week, Axne’s campaign released an early July poll taken by ALG Research showing her leading Young, 45 percent to 41 percent. Republicans dispute that Axne is in the lead, but admit it’s a very competitive race. Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell is also competitive against GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds and will likely need to carry the 3rd CD to win. He could help Axne. Young’s race moves from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.