Having Won The District in 2016 & With Nearly Equal Cash-On-Hand, DePasquale Enters General Election In A Position Of Strength
A new poll out of South Central Pennsylvania shows a highly competitive race for Congress between Democrat Eugene DePasquale and Republican Scott Perry. Perry’s strikingly small lead, 50-47%, falls within the poll’s margin-of-error and places DePasquale in a position of strength, starting where the 2018 nominee ended with a three-point race. The poll also finds that DePasquale enjoys better favorability ratings than Perry – a negative sign for Perry who has spent nearly a decade in DC.
As a reminder, DePasquale won the district in his reelection for Auditor General, the same year Trump was on the ballot, and enters the general election with nearly equal cash-on-hand to Perry.
Perry’s seat is a top offensive target for Democrats looking to expand their majority. The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have each placed a $1 million ad reservation in the Harrisburg market for the fall. The Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund placed an $800,000 ad buy in April.
Democrats believe they found their dream candidate in DePasquale, thanks to his ties to the district from his time as a state legislator. An inaugural member of the DCCC’s Red to Blue challenger program this cycle, he carried the district with nearly 51 percent of the vote when he ran statewide for Auditor General in 2016 with Trump on the ballot. The poll found DePasquale’s name ID at 63 percent, with a 32 percent positive rating to 17 percent negative. Perry, whose name identification was 80 percent, had a 35 percent positive rating to 28 percent negative.
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Democratic voter registration has ticked up in two counties within the district since the 2018 midterms, when Perry defeated Democrat George Scott by three points. Perry has a narrow cash-on-hand advantage with $723,000 to DePasquale’s $703,000, as of May 13.Elsewhere in Pennsylvania, a state critical to Trump’s reelection bid, recent Democratic polls have shown the president trailing Biden in competitive congressional districts. Trump carried the 10th District by 9 points in 2016.
“Pennsylvanians are tired of Congressman Scott Perry’s failed leadership that prioritizes his campaign donors and special interests above families in South Central Pennsylvania. That couldn’t stand in clearer contrast to Eugene DePasquale who has spent his career fighting for the issues that matter to Pennsylvania families – the same issues he faced growing up like combating opioid abuse and securing drug treatment, and delivering higher-quality more affordable health care and cheaper prescription drugs,” said DCCC Spokesperson Courtney Rice. “DePasquale has already won this district with President Trump at the top of the ticket and these numbers prove that this race is shaping up to be one of the top pick up opportunities in the country.”
Cook Political Report and Politico rate this race as a Toss-Up.
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