Following a devastating loss for Republicans in PA-18, the non-partisan election forecasters at Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved their ratings for Congressional Races in OH-12, OH-14, OH-15, and OH-16 away from Republicans. OH-01 was already listed as Lean Republican.
“The election results from PA-18 should put Ohio Republicans on notice,” said DCCC spokesperson Amanda Sherman. “The Republican agenda was too toxic to win in a district that President Trump carried by 20 percentage points, and their plan to campaign on their tax handout to big corporations fell flat on its face. Whether they are running in open seats and special elections, or as entrenched incumbents in districts they’ve held for decades, Republican congressional candidates in Ohio are in trouble.”
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Are Republicans in More Special Trouble? | Sabato’s Crystal Ball
By Kyle Kondik
March, 14th 2018
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/are-republicans-in-more-special-trouble/
[…] It’s also one of only four (of 88 total) counties in Ohio where Donald Trump actually performed worse than Mitt Romney (to put that in context, Trump improved 11 points on Romney’s statewide margin in Ohio, turning a three-point loss into an eight-point win in a traditional bellwether state). Overall, OH-12 voted for Trump by about 11 points and Romney by 10, so it hardly budged at all from 2012 to 2016. That’s probably because the district is more highly educated than the national average (40% of residents over 25 have a four-year college degree, compared to about 30% nationally), and white college-educated voters are significantly more skeptical of Trump than white non-college voters. If there’s a parallel to PA-18, it would be if the areas of the district closest to Columbus swing heavily to the Democratic nominee as a protest against Trump, much like areas of PA-18 did on Tuesday. It’s this possibility that prompts us to move the rating from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
[…] We’re moving the open OH-16 from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and we’re making the same changes to the districts held by Reps. David Joyce (R, OH-14) and Stivers (R, OH-15). These districts cover significant portions of suburban Columbus (OH-15) and Cleveland (OH-14 and OH-16), and the areas of these districts closest to their respective big cities have the potential to mimic the suburban portions of Pittsburgh that powered Lamb to victory on Tuesday. All three districts are also similar to PA-18 in that they have at least average four-year college attainment and above-average median income, and while the Democratic challengers in those seats are unproven, Republicans may eventually have trouble in one or more of the seats, each of which Trump won by double digits (11 points in OH-14, 16 in OH-15, and 17 in OH-16). Of the three, OH-16 is probably the most vulnerable if only because it’s an open seat (Republican Rep. Jim Renacci is running for U.S. Senate). Stivers and Joyce are quality incumbents although they could be pushed if things go further south for Republicans this fall.
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