“As a veteran, businesswoman and educator, Chrissy Houlahan has skills, knowledge, experience and values that few candidates can match. I have no doubt that Chrissy will keep up the hard work and dedication to the people of Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional district, and know she will win in November,” –DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján
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To: Interested Parties
From: Evan Lukaske, DCCC Regional Press Secretary
Date: May 15, 2018
Re: The Case Against Greg McCauley
Republicans will try, but there is no way to spin these primary results. The November matchup will pit veteran and businesswoman Chrissy Houlahan against virtually unknown, far-right and accidental candidate Greg McCauley. As reporters and political analysts have noted, PA-06 is one of the likeliest Democratic pickups in the entire country.
Even while incumbent Republican Ryan Costello, a young, well-liked and well-funded politician, was running for reelection, Republicans were facing an uphill climb against Chrissy Houlahan in a district that voted narrowly for Hillary Clinton. NRCC Chairman Steve Stivers had even called the race a bellwether that would determine if Republicans could keep the House, citing the strong challenge from Chrissy Houlahan, an Air Force veteran and successful businesswoman who had raised substantial campaign funds and had no primary opposition. While Costello had $1.3 million in the bank at the end of 2017, Houlahan was close behind with $950k cash on hand.
Once the Pennsylvania Supreme Court drew a new, fair Congressional map PA-06 shifted from a Clinton+1 district to a Clinton+10 district. Barely more than a month later, Ryan Costello chose to retire, rather than run under the new map, leaving only one Republican on the ballot—attorney Greg McCauley.
A virtual unknown, McCauley has raised very little money and does not have a professional campaign operation. His candidacy so concerned local Republicans that they considered running a write-in candidate to defeat him. Even worse for Republicans, the far-right McCauley only entered the race because Costello was too moderate, saying he was motivated to challenge Costello because of his vote against the Republican health care repeal bill.
Make no mistake—Houlahan isn’t taking anything for granted and will run hard through the finish line. But it looks increasingly likely that constituents in this community will finally have the Democratic representation they deserve after this November.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING
HEADLINE: “Costello Retirement Moves PA-06 from Toss Up to Likely Democratic” [Cook Political Report, 3/26/2018]
“Costello is probably the only Republican who would have had a shot at winning a district that was made more Democratic under the new congressional map ordered by the state supreme court.” [Inside Elections, 3/24/2018]
“The congressman [Costello] finally announced that he would not seek re-election, and that almost certainly ended GOP chances of holding this suburban Philadelphia seat.” [Roll Call, 5/10/2018]
“If Democratic strategists could build a candidate for Pennsylvania’s sixth congressional district, she would probably look something like Chrissy Houlahan. A 50-year-old former air-force captain, entrepreneur and chemistry teacher with Teach for America, Mrs. Houlahan appears, crucially, to have been none of those impressive things for political effect.” [The Economist, 2/17/2018]
“Party leaders have few options. They can get behind McCauley, a little-known, first-time candidate. They could try to talk him into withdrawing and put forward their own candidate, but the new entrant could only run as a write-in candidate…if McCauley is determined to run, party leaders could challenge McCauley’s nominating petitions in court, and hope to have him removed from the ballot…” [WHYY, 3/25/2018]
Describing McCauley, elections forecaster Dave Wasserman wrote, “his positions on guns and immigration put him to the right of the district and he begins with a massive resource disadvantage.” The same day Costello retired, political analysts shifted the race from “Toss Up” to “Likely Democratic.”
GREG McCAULEY: RIGHT OF COSTELLO, NONE OF THE SUPPORT OR MONEY
Supports GOP Health Care Repeal That Costello Opposed
Retiring Republican Congressman Ryan Costello opposed the Republican health care bill that would increase healthcare costs, gut pre-existing conditions and otherwise inflict serious harm on hardworking Americans in PA-06.
Costello’s opposition to these destructive policies actually “energized” McCauley to run against him, and McCauley’s website endorses repealing the ACA, the Republicans’ cynical campaign promise of the past seven years. It’s highly doubtful that voters here want to see more attacks on affordable healthcare and chaos thrown into our health care system, but McCauley will try.
The Tax Plan Anchor
Given Costello’s vote for the GOP Tax Scam, McCauley almost certainly supports the massive giveaway to big corporations and the rich, and it will be an anchor on his candidacy. Since the Tax Scam’s debut and subsequent passage, it has been and remains a deeply unpopular piece of legislation. Last month, a WSJ/NBC News poll found the tax plan underwater. Ominously, just more than half of Republicans thought the plan was a good idea.
McCauley will have to explain to voters why 83% of the tax cuts go to the wealthiest one percent, why big corporations deserve larger tax cuts than middle-class families, why companies that have announced nearly $400 billion in stock buybacks are simultaneously laying off workers, and why he voted to blow a $1.9 trillion hole in the deficit. Speaker Ryan may be retiring, but not before making a clear, problematic declaration that Republicans like McCauley will have to address: the Republicans intend to use the deficit hole to slash Medicare and Social Security.
Significantly, the bill gutted the Affordable Care Act and the nonpartisan CBO found that it will increase health care premiums in a state that just experienced a 30% spike last year.
Anti-women’s health
In a highly educated, Democratic leaning district like PA-06, opposition to women’s health care can cripple even the strongest Republican challengers. For McCauley, who has little support and limited campaign funds, his aim to defund Planned Parenthood spells certain disaster in the general. In the Keystone State, 90,000 women and families rely on Planned Parenthood for cancer screenings, low-cost birth control and family planning services. McCauley’s far right position on women’s health care is vastly out of touch with this community’s values.
THE PATH TO VICTORY
Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District is a highly educated, suburban and urban district, one of only twenty-five districts that voted for Secretary Clinton and a Republican member of Congress. The district is 38% more affluent than the state average and the number of constituents with college degrees is 46% higher than the state average.
The district underwent a significant shift under the new fairer congressional map. The new district substitutes large swaths of Republican leaning Berks and Lebanon County for the heavily Democratic city of Reading and all of Chester County. As a result, while Secretary Clinton carried the district by one point under the old map, under the new map, Clinton won the district by a decisive 10 points. Barack Obama won the district in both 2012 and 2008, and Senator Bob Casey and Governor Tom Wolf each carried the district in 2012 and 2014, respectively.
Veteran, businesswoman and educator Chrissy Houlahan puts Democrats in an extremely strong position to flip this seat. Houlahan’s profile as an Air Force captain and COO of AND1 Apparel, a successful Philadelphia-area business, cuts neatly across party lines. Furthermore, as a former teacher and president of an education nonprofit focused on child literacy, Houlahan has expertise in an issue that resonates deeply in this highly educated district. Finally, Houlahan’s extensive network have enabled her to become a fundraising powerhouse. She ended the first quarter of 2018 with more than $1.6 million cash on hand.
The unprecedented Democratic energy has already made its mark on Chester County, the heart of this district. In the 2017 county elections, Democrats scored a clean sweep of the four countywide offices, made more impressive by the fact that “since its incorporation in the 1700s, the county has never elected a Democrat to one of the nine row office positions, and currently the only countywide official from the party is a minority commissioner post mandated by law.”