To: Interested Parties
From: Jermaine House, South Regional Press Secretary
Date: March 1, 2016
RE: The Case Against Will Hurd
Tonight’s Texas Primary results mark the beginning of the general election race for Texas’ 23rd Congressional district and a rematch between Congressman Will Hurd and former Congressman Pete Gallego.
By using – or perhaps misusing – his CIA credentials to establish himself as an expert on cybersecurity, Rep. Hurd has worked to craft an image as one of the “rising stars” of the House Republican freshman class. Reading only his carefully-curated headlines on national security might lead you to believe that Congressman Hurd’s reelection prospects are more secure than the reality on the ground evidences. Significant outside spending helped Hurd eke out a narrow victory in 2014, but Rep. Hurd’s many missteps so far in Congress have put his reelection in jeopardy. His reliable vote for reckless House Republican policies and support for drastic budget cuts have damaged his standing with critical constituencies in Southwest Texas.
As a result, former Rep. Gallego, who outperformed President Obama and won this district in 2012, is in a strong position heading into the general election. Many dynamics, including anticipated presidential year turnout, Hurd’s irresponsible decisions, and the “Trump effect” point to a daunting electoral path for Rep. Hurd in November.
Hurd Not Ready for Primetime
Congressman Hurd’s claim to fame is also the source of his potentially biggest misstep so far in Congress. A report in Huffington Post noted Hurd’s possibly loose language when discussing his CIA experience, when he hinted at his involvement in offensive cyber-attacks against Russia. According to the report, this revelation is likely classified information, since the US. Government has never officially acknowledged involvement with cyberwarfare with Russia.
The questions around Hurd’s Russia comments are perhaps less surprising when taken with another headline from his first term: “Will Hurd Cashes in on CIA Skills.” Hurd sent an invitation to political donors requesting $5,000 to learn secret agent tactics such as: “how to make a turn at high speeds,” “how to do a J-turn like you see in the movies,” and “how to disable a car that is chasing you.” Though Rep. Hurd promised to teach political donors these tactics for campaign cash, the CIA’s own website suggests these tactics are a myth, more suitable to sell movie tickets and not activity in which CIA employees actually engage.
In addition to burnishing his CIA credentials, Hurd has made several other political miscalculations in his first term:
- Despite making small business issues one his top priorities on the campaign trail Rep. Hurd bizarrely quit the Small Business Committee when he arrived in Congress, claiming that he needed to focus his attention elsewhere.
- During Donald Trump’s early success, reporters in Southwest Texas were desperate to hear from their Congressman on the pressing issue of birthright citizenship, and Hurd repeatedly refused to respond. Two reporters pleaded with the Congressman on TV to stop avoiding the press.
- Rep. Hurd has made a name for himself as the cybersecurity expert on Capitol Hill, and he openly acknowledges the grave threat cyberwarfare poses to the United States. Consequently, Hurd left many scratching their heads when he quietly voted to underfund research in cybersecurity infrastructure, the very issue he called one of the most “pressing in the country.”
Hurd’s Reckless Record
Rep. Hurd’s record is closely aligned with the reckless Republican Congress that is best known for dysfunction and gridlock. By voting with Republicans 96% of time, Hurd has proven he is unwilling to stand up for Southwest Texans, when their priorities are on Republicans’ chopping block. Rep. Hurd has voted for his party’s attempts to end the guarantee of Medicare and freeze Pell Grant funding, which would hurt the thousands of Texas students, seniors, and working families who are working hard and still not getting ahead.
Hurd has even gone a step farther than the drastic Republican budget, supporting a harsh across-the-board budget cut that would reduce federal spending to 18% of GDP, resulting in drastic 16% across-the-board cuts and:
- Hurt 46,000 Texas Veterans in his district
- Jeopardize disability compensation and pensions for Texan Veterans
- Endanger programs to help Texas Veterans start small businesses
- Risk medical care for 12,000 Veterans in the his district
TX-23 is Stronger for Democrats in a Presidential Year
In 2012, Pete Gallego proved that TX-23 is winnable in a Presidential year. After serving the district in Congress, Gallego lost only narrowly – by roughly 2,500 votes – in 2014’s Republican wave election. Gallego’s record of service is well known in the district, given that in addition to serving in Congress, he represented a large portion of this district — including many of its rural counties — in the Texas Legislature. In 2012, Gallego over performed President Obama by as much as 12 points in some of these same counties.
Data from past presidential cycles indicate that in addition to an overall increase in turnout that will favor Gallego, turnout will specifically increase among Hispanic voters, women, and young voters – constituencies that are a key part of the Democratic coalition in TX-23.
The Donald Factor Among Texas’ Hispanic Voters
Donald Trump won nearly every state on Super Tuesday, further securing his position as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination. As has been widely noted, Trump’s success spells certain down-ballot damage for vulnerable incumbent House Republicans, Will Hurd chief among them. Over 60 percent of the voting age population in TX-23 is Hispanic, and according to US News, Trump’s hateful anti-immigration rhetoric has caused a “spike in new voter registration among Latinos.” Put simply, Trump’s candidacy and the negative blowback from his anti-immigrant platform could be a ‘gift’ for Pete Gallego, as noted by the Fort Stockton Pioneer.
Conclusion: Will Hurd’s Reelection is in Peril
In 2016, Congressman Hurd already faces an uphill battle running for reelection among a more Democratic electorate in this presidential year, and Donald Trump’s continued rise has already damaged the Republican brand among Latino voters in this diverse district. Will Hurd has established himself as someone who is more concerned with flaunting his CIA record than he is with standing up for his own constituents, which will hurt him as he faces a rematch against the well-respected Pete Gallego.
If past is prologue, Hurd will continue to dodge the tough issues as voters increasingly hold him accountable for putting reflexive Republican politics before Southwest Texans.