|
House Republicans are running scared, and it’s obvious why. New analysis by the Center for Politics (Sabato’s Crystal Ball) paints a grim picture for House Republicans and lays out a district by district overview of the multiple paths for House Democrats to retake the majority.
From the Crystal Ball:
“Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so.”
“Typically in midterms, the non-presidential party improves both their share of seats and share of the popular House vote compared to the previous election. The Democrats’ path became clearer once all of the 2024 races were called and they captured 215 seats to the Republicans’ 220, meaning they only needed to do 3 seats better in 2026 to flip the House.”
“So much about the economic situation is uncertain—let alone the practical implications of the haphazard Elon Musk-led cuts to the federal government or how Republicans craft an extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts. There is and will be plenty for voters to react to in the midterm: typically that reaction is negative…”
“Electorally, Democrats have been punching above their weight in special elections much like they did in 2017, and they just decisively won the first big statewide election of Trump’s second term, maintaining liberal control of the Wisconsin state Supreme Court last week.”
“To sum up this preamble, we would just say the following: Democrats became favorites to flip the House as soon as Trump won, and what has happened since then has not really changed that assessment.
“…Democrats are more significant favorites than the ratings show.”
“Our bottom line assessment of the battle for Congress is that Democrats should win the House”
DCCC Spokesperson Viet Shelton:
“The midterms are shaping up to be a referendum on who is going to help improve the lives of everyday Americans, not the wealthy and well-connected. By all accounts, House Republicans are failing miserably and it’s why House Democrats are favored to re-take the majority. Instead of lowering prices, Republicans are sending the economy into a tailspin and working to decimate Medicaid. House Democrats have the better message, stronger candidates, and a favorable political environment as we go into 2026.” |
