“Talk about Mike Lawler up in the Hudson Valley right, when you see numbers like this, you have to be really worried if you’re Mike Lawler. Because we’re talking about a huge Democratic rebound in New York, and oftentimes Democratic majorities are built on states like New York eliminating the few Republicans that actually represent it in the House.”
DCCC Spokesperson Riya Vashi:
“New York is once again emerging as a key battleground in the fight for the House majority – and Mike Lawler is running out of places to hide. Every day, Lawler works harder to advance Donald Trump’s agenda that’s hurting Hudson Valley families, and voters are already making clear they’re ready for a change.”
Read more coverage of the analysis:
Newsweek: New Big State Polling Shows ‘Huge Rebound’ for Democrats in Midterms
- Democrats are seeing a “huge rebound” in some of the nation’s largest and most consequential states, according to new polling highlighted by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.
- That scale of movement, Enten noted, is especially dangerous for Republicans like Representative Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley.
- Democratic House majorities are often built by wiping out the handful of Republicans who manage to win seats in deep‑blue states.
- These numbers, he said, should make the GOP “really worried” in New York.
- That rebound, he explained, is exactly the sort of margin Democrats need if they hope to eliminate the remaining Republican seats in the state.
- Historically, big Democratic waves such as those in 2006 and 2018 were powered by sweeping up these leftover Republican districts in blue states.
Daily Beast: CNN Data Guru Predicts Brutal Home State Humiliation for Trump
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten revealed that Donald Trump’s second term is already backfiring in his backyard.
- The data guru revealed on Wednesday’s CNN News Central that Trump 2.0 has already wiped out the gains in the president’s home state of New York—and warned that the party is heading toward an even uglier showing in the November midterms.
- Enten predicted that New York will bounce back to solid blue—a warning sign for a state GOP that has already lost a rising star in Elise Stefanik.
- Though Democrats have yet to elect Lawler’s 2026 challenger, the prominent election forecaster Cook Political Report moved Lawler’s district, NY-17, from “Lean R” to “Toss Up.”
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