COOK POLITICAL REPORT: MI-04 Emerging as “Competitive” Battleground As District Trends Towards Democrats

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A new analysis from Cook Political Report details how Michigan’s 4th Congressional District is an emerging 2026 battleground.

Cook Political highlights how West Michigan, home to MI-04, “has been a bright spot for Democrats” and trends point to the fact that the district “could host a competitive race next year” as Republicans’ margins continue to shrink.

And notably, Governor Gretchen Whitmer won MI-04 during her 2022 re-election.

Even as ancestrally Democratic parts of Michigan have veered right in the Trump era, West Michigan has been a bright spot for Democrats. Republicans have continued to lose ground in Grand Rapids and the surrounding suburbs, home to Dutch Reformed Christians who lean conservative but are Trump skeptical.
Those political trends enabled Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten to flip the Grand Rapids-based 3rd District in 2022. Now, there are signs that its neighboring district to the south could host a competitive race next year.
Michigan’s 4th District includes Kalamazoo, the outer suburbs of Grand Rapids and the working-class city of Battle Creek (home to the Kellogg factory). In 2016, Donald Trump carried it by nine points; in 2020, that advantage had shrunk to four points.
In 2022, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer narrowly carried the district.
…Ottawa County, a conservative Grand Rapids suburb, was one of the few counties where Kamala Harris improved on Joe Biden’s 2020 margin.
The city of Holland, which straddles Ottawa and Allegan counties, has moved 18 points leftward over the past 12 years.

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