Today, the non-partisan election forecaster Cook Political Report shifted the open seat in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District towards Democrats. Citing the strong national environment for Democrats and the potential for a bitter Republican primary in NM-02, Cook’s David Wasserman, noted that, “a year like 2018 could be ripe for the right kind of Democrat.” The review cited the strong candidacy of Las Cruces Water rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small who has a strong track record in the district.
“New Mexicans are tired of Washington leaving them behind when voting to raise their healthcare costs, and giving tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy and corporations,” said DCCC Spokeswoman Rachel Irwin. “New Mexicans deserve a proven leader like Xochitl Torres Small who has fought to expand opportunities for this rural district as a field representative for Sen. Udall and as a water attorney. Republicans weighed down by unpopular Gov. Martinez and this do-nothing Congress face an uphill battle heading into November.”
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March House Update: Ratings Changes in 10 Districts
Cook Political Report
By David Wasserman
NM-02: OPEN (Pearce) (R) – Southern half: Las Cruces, Roswell, Hobbs
Lean Republican. This rural southern New Mexico seat is the state’s most GOP-friendly: it voted for President Trump 50 percent to 40 percent in 2016. But it’s not uncharted territory for Democrats: in 2008, when GOP Rep. Steve Pearce ran for Senate, a conservative Democratic oil and gas businessman won it for a term. Now that Pearce is leaving again to run for governor, a year like 2018 could be ripe for the right kind of Democrat.
Democrats are rapidly consolidating behind charismatic Las Cruces water rights attorney Xochitl Torres Small, who has the potential to be a star. Torres Small, 33, grew up in Las Cruces, graduated from Georgetown and UNM Law School, and became Sen. Tom Udall’s regional point person. She’s well-connected with Las Cruces’s liberal activists but owns guns and will talk about her enthusiasm for oryx hunting and butchering chickens.
Meanwhile, Republicans are headed for a bitter June primary between former state GOP chair and Hobbs mayor Monty Newman and Alamogordo-based state Rep. Yvette Herrell. Newman was the GOP runner-up here in 2008 and has Sen. Ted Cruz’s endorsement. His campaign manager was outgoing Gov. Susanna Martinez’s top political adviser. Herrell bills herself as an early Trump backer and border wall supporter.
[…] No matter who prevails, Torres Small will likely enter the fall with a financial head start. She will need turn out Hispanic voters (this seat is 53 percent Hispanic) and tie the GOP nominee to the unpopular Martinez to have a chance, but it’s not impossible.