With 26 days left in the election, House Democrats are poised to expand their majority with seven more race shifts in their favor from Cook Political Report. This adds onto the shifts toward Democrats from Sabato’s Crystal Ball this morning as House Democrats continue to fortify their massive battlefield in the final stretch.
IA-03: Axne – Toss Up to Lean D
NY-24: Katko – Lean R to Toss Up
NC-11: VACANT – Likely R to Lean R
PA-07: Wild – Lean D to Likely D
PA-16: Kelly – Solid R to Likely R
TX-07: Fletcher – Lean D to Likely D
VA-07: Spanberger – Toss Up to Lean D
Four weeks out, House Republicans are in danger of slipping deeper in the minority as Democrats push deeper into red territory. Privately, some GOP strategists fear the party isn’t “triaging” races fast enough by ditching long-prized offensive opportunities and shoring up seats in unexpected trouble…
First, polling across the House landscape tells a consistent story: in both parties’ surveys, President Trump is underperforming his 2016 margins by five to ten points…. But in some suburban-dominated districts, Trump is trailing his 2016 margins by more than ten points, dragging Republicans down.
Second, many Republican candidates are getting clobbered on television. At the end of June, the median NRCC-targeted Democratic incumbent had $2.6 million on hand to the median GOP challenger’s $414,000. The gap has diminished somewhat since, but the head start gave many “Frontline” Democratic freshmen the chance to define their races — and their opponents — on their terms over the summer.
Third, open seats remain a Republican migraine. There are 32 GOP-held seats without an incumbent on the ballot, versus just 12 Democratic open seats. Two Republican seats in North Carolina (NC-02 and NC-06) are guaranteed to flip blue because of a new court-ordered map, and Democrats are also ahead in the open seats of retiring Reps. Rob Woodall (GA-07) and Will Hurd (TX-23).
[…] Overall, however, Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority… now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible.
- IA-03: Cindy Axne (D) – Southwest: Des Moines, Council Bluffs
Lean Democrat. Former GOP Rep. David Young is back for a rematch after losing to Axne 47 percent to 49 percent in 2018. Now, Young is up with ads attacking Axne for voting by proxy during COVID-19, while Axne continues to hammer Young over his 2017 vote to repeal the ACA. This Des Moines-based district backed Trump by four points, but it’s the most urban district in the state. Biden is ahead here, and Republicans are increasingly pessimistic about Young’s chances.
- NY-24: John Katko (R) – West central: Syracuse, Oswego
Toss Up. In 2018, Katko beat progressive activist Dana Balter by five points thanks to his reputation as a moderate, tough-on-gangs former prosecutor. But Democrats have hammered Katko for endorsing Trump for reelection in January. A new Siena College poll finds Balter leading 45 percent to 42 percent, with 1968 Syracuse Law graduate Joe Biden leading Trump 53 percent to 34 percent…
- NC-11: VACANT (Meadows) (R) – West: Asheville, Smoky Mountains
Lean Republican. In June, 25-year-old real estate investor Madison Cawthorn won the GOP runoff for this mountainous district, defeating White House chief of staff Mark Meadows’ endorsed candidate. But in August, Jezebel published since-deleted Instagram posts appearing to show the young candidate marveling at Hitler’s Eagle’s Nest bunker during a 2017 vacation. Now, Republicans are increasingly anxious.
Last year, court-ordered redistricting added Asheville back to the 11th CD, narrowing Trump’s 2016 margin here from 29 points to 17 points. Democratic retired Air Force colonel Moe Davis might raise $2 million and is running on “country over party.” Privately, GOP outside groups admit it’s become too close for comfort and want to spend, but the presidential race has jacked up the cost of ads in Asheville.
- PA-07: Susan Wild (D) – Lehigh Valley: Allentown, Bethlehem
Likely Democrat. Initially, manufacturing executive Lisa Scheller looked like one of Republicans’ most promising challengers of the cycle: in one ad, she tells of overcoming heroin and alcohol addictions while throwing punches in a boxing gym. But as Trump’s numbers have ebbed, Scheller’s math has gotten harder. This Lehigh Valley seat voted for Clinton by a point in 2016 and Wild by ten points in 2018, and a new Muhlenberg College poll shows the freshman Wild leading 52 percent to 39 percent.
- PA-16: Mike Kelly (R) – Northwest: Erie, Butler
Likely Republican. Kelly, a former car dealer, faced a bruising race against Erie attorney Ron DiNicola in 2018 and won 52 percent to 47 percent… she’s beaten Kelly to the Erie airwaves with an appealing ad playing up her background as a single mom and attacking Kelly for seeking tax breaks for auto dealers…
- TX-07: Lizzie Fletcher (D) – Houston northwest suburbs: Jersey Village
Likely Democrat. West Point graduate Wesley Hunt is one of the GOP’s most celebrated recruits: in his ads, he’s touted his service in Iraq and his African-American heritage. But as this upscale district has trended rapidly away from Trump’s brand, the math for Hunt has gotten harder. Fletcher has highlighted her work to secure Hurricane Harvey relief funds and break with her party’s left on energy issues. In mid-September, the NRCC canceled its Houston ad reservation, and Democrats are increasingly confident.
- VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D) – Central: Richmond suburbs, Culpeper
Lean Democrat. Former Army Green Beret and GOP Del. Nick Freitas is touting mask-wearing in his ads and has financial support from former GOP Reps. Eric Cantor and Dave Brat as well as mega-donor Richard Uihlein. But the NRCC is recycling a 2018 attack on Spanberger for briefly teaching at a Northern Virginia Islamic school that Republicans dub “terror high” – a hit that didn’t work in 2018. The Richmond suburbs are rapidly trending blue, and Spanberger has opened up a lead.
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