“Congressman Steve Knight is as bad at campaigning as he is at representing his constituents – voting for the disastrous Republican healthcare plan that would raise premiums while ripping healthcare away from millions of Americans and the Republican tax scam, which raises taxes on nearly a million Californians.” – Drew Godinich, DCCC spokesperson
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IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
Risk Factors for 2018 GOP House Incumbents
Dave Wasserman | April 20, 2018
http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/risk-factors-2018-gop-house-incumbents-0
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In 2010, House Democrats suffered a backlash against their votes for two polarizing pieces of legislation: cap and trade (which died in the Senate) and the Affordable Care Act (which passed). 2018 may be a mirror image: House Republicans must defend their votes for the AHCA (which polled far worse than Obamacare and died in the Senate) and the tax bill. A new Gallup poll found voters still disapprove of the tax bill, 52 percent to 39 percent, four months after passage.
Armed with fresh FEC data, we have created a table listing seven “risk factors” to gauge Republican incumbents’ political health and readiness for a wave election. In the past, those incumbents with a high number of risk factors have typically been the ripest targets, while those with fewer risk factors could still be vulnerable but may be better able to withstand a hostile political environment.
The seven risk factors are:
- Sits in a district with a Cook PVI score of R+5 or less Republican.
- Sits in a district that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016.
- Received 55 percent of the vote or less in the 2016 election (or a 2017 special election).
- Voted in favor of the American Health Care Act in the May 4 roll call vote.
- Voted in favor of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the December 19 roll call vote.
- Raised less money than at least one Democratic opponent in the first quarter of 2018.
- Has a Democratic opponent with at least $200,000 in cash on hand as of March 31.
Only one incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight (CA-25), has all seven risk factors. Eight incumbents have six risk factors, 23 incumbents have five, 23 incumbents have four and 32 have three. This is not a hard and fast list, and over the next quarter, many incumbents will add or subtract factors based on their own and their opponents’ progress.